Stock Analysis | Deckers Outdoor Outlook - Mixed Signals and a Weak Technical Outlook

Market Snapshot

Headline: Deckers Outdoor is underperforming with mixed analyst views and weak technical signals. The stock is currently down by 0.19%, and while some analysts remain bullish, the technical outlook suggests caution.

News Highlights

Recent news highlights a mixed landscape for luxury goods and related sectors:

• Luxury goods seizures in the Philippines could indirectly affect global luxury demand and consumer behavior, with authorities seizing over $15.8 billion in counterfeit goods, signaling strong market demand and potential regulatory pressure on the industry.
• Collaboration between Huawei and JAC has led to the launch of the Maextro S800 luxury sedan. While not directly related to Deckers, the broader luxury market’s innovation may shift consumer spending toward automotive over apparel in some markets.
• Luxury real estate growth is on the rise in countries like India and Japan, with projects like Aparna Moonstone and REAL PRO Ookayama showing increased investment in luxury housing. While this reflects broader economic strength, it also shows how consumer spending is shifting toward long-term investments over fashion items.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are split on Deckers Outdoor, with a simple average rating of 3.88 and a performance-weighted rating of 3.24. The ratings show a moderate dispersion, with 7 “Strong Buy” ratings, 2 “Buy”, and 1 “Strong Sell” among the 16 forecasts over the last 20 days. Despite the mixed signals, the stock has fallen in recent days, indicating a possible mismatch between expectations and reality.

Key fundamental factors and their internal diagnostic scores (0-10) are as follows:

• EV/EBIT: 18.78 with an internal diagnostic score of 3.43 – indicating room for improvement in valuation metrics.
• Inventory Turnover Ratio: 1.49 with a score of 3.60 – suggesting slower inventory movement.
• Net Profit Margin (NPM): 18.48% with a score of 3.50 – showing moderate profitability.
• Cash Flow Turnover (Cash-UP): 22.10% with a score of 1.76 – weak liquidity performance.
• Asset Turnover (Asset-MV): -2.02% with a score of 0.60 – poor asset efficiency.
• Cash Position (Cash-MV): 3.31% with a score of 4.68 – indicating decent liquidity strength.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and retail flows are both showing a negative trend. Institutional investors are cautious, with a block inflow ratio of 48.67% compared to a 48.73% overall inflow ratio. While small, medium, and large investors have seen inflows at nearly equal rates, the negative sentiment is consistent across all sizes, suggesting broader market uncertainty rather than isolated retail or institutional behavior.

Key Technical Signals

Technical indicators paint a weak outlook for Deckers Outdoor, with a technical score of 3.16 and a recommendation to avoid the stock. Recent signals include:

• Williams %R Oversold (WR Oversold): A strong bearish indicator with an internal score of 1.00. Historical signals have averaged a -1.25% return, with only a 36.67% win rate.
• MACD Death Cross: A neutral to slightly positive signal with an internal score of 4.44. Historical returns average 1.55%, but only 50% win rate limits its predictive power.
• Bearish Engulfing: A bearish candlestick pattern with a neutral score of 4.05, and an average return of -0.97% historically, with 55.56% win rate.

Recent chart patterns: The WR Oversold signal was active on multiple days from August 5 to 11, 2025, indicating a prolonged bearish bias. The MACD Death Cross appeared on August 6, and the Bearish Engulfing on August 11—suggesting a consolidation of bearish momentum.

Conclusion

With a mixed fundamental outlook, weak technical signals, and a cautious market sentiment, Deckers Outdoor appears to be in a tough spot. The average analyst rating suggests some potential, but the technical and flow indicators do not align well with this optimism. Investors may want to wait for clearer signals or a pullback before entering. Given the current trend, it might be wise to monitor earnings and cash flow developments in the coming months for signs of recovery.