Stock Analysis | Deckers Outdoor Outlook - Mixed Signals Amid Luxury Sector Momentum

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Despite a recent price rise of 13.31%, technical indicators suggest the stock is weak with bearish signals dominating.

News Highlights

The luxury sector is in the spotlight, with a P15.8 billion seizure of counterfeit goods in the Philippines and new launches like the Huawei-JAC Maextro S800 luxury sedan. These developments could influence consumer sentiment in the broader market, including footwear and apparel players like Deckers Outdoor.

• Hyatt's new lifestyle brand and luxury housing projects by Aparna Constructions highlight growing demand for premium products, potentially benefiting brands like Deckers with a focus on quality and brand equity.
• New luxury aircraft tax in Washington and shifting global trade policies may indirectly affect supply chains and pricing strategies for companies operating in the premium goods space.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average rating score (simple mean): 3.88

Weighted rating score (performance-weighted): 3.24

Analysts are not in agreement, with 7 “Strong Buy” ratings, 6 “Neutral”, and 1 “Strong Sell”. This indicates a dispersed outlook. While the recent price rise matches the weighted expectations, the internal diagnostic scores on fundamentals tell a more nuanced story:

• EV/EBIT is 18.78 with a model score of 3 — suggests average efficiency.
• Cash-MV is 5.40% with a high model score of 7.89 — indicates strong liquidity.
• Net profit / Total profit is 76.47% with a model score of 2 — signals room for improvement in profit conversion.
• Income tax / Total profit is 23.53% with a model score of 3 — shows moderate tax burden.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money flows are negative overall, with Large and Medium capital groups showing outflows. However, Small and Extra-large investors are inflating the stock. The overall inflow ratio is 49.67%, with a fund-flow score of 7.89 labeled “good.” This suggests that while institutional money is cautious, retail and large-cap money is showing some interest in the stock.

Key Technical Signals

Internal diagnostic scores (0-10) for key indicators:

• WR Overbought has a 1.71 score — weak signal for bearish bias.
• RSI Overbought has a 2.42 score — also bearish with low confidence.

Between August 25 and August 29, 2025, both WR and RSI remained overbought, signaling a weak trend with declining momentum. The technical score is a 2.06, and the overall trend is considered “weak” — suggesting investors should avoid or be cautious of further declines.

Conclusion

Deckers Outdoor appears caught between a mixed market backdrop and weakening technical signals. While cash flow and some fundamentals look strong, the technical outlook is bearish and analysts are split. Investors may want to wait for a clearer trend or look to upcoming earnings and broader luxury market data before making a move. For now, a “watch and wait” strategy is advised.