Stock Analysis | Copart Outlook - Mixed Signals as Fundamentals Shine but Technicals Deter

Market Snapshot

Copart (CPRT.O) is showing a 2.93% price rise, but analysts' expectations remain mismatched with this trend, signaling a cautionary stance. The internal diagnostic score for technical analysis is low at 2.9, while fundamentals carry a strong score of 8.48, indicating a potential divergence in investor signals.

News Highlights

Recent global news could indirectly affect investor sentiment toward Copart:

• North Korea's military modernization with Russian support raises concerns about regional stability, potentially impacting broader equity markets and investor risk appetite.
• Armed groups looting aid supplies in Gaza highlight ongoing humanitarian and geopolitical risks, which could weigh on global market optimism.
• ETFGI reports a record $1.25 trillion in ETF assets in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), suggesting continued institutional interest in capital-efficient and liquid investments — a positive backdrop for large-cap or ETF-linked stocks.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain divided on Copart. The simple average rating is 3.50, while the performance-weighted rating is 2.20, showing a significant gap between current expectations and historical performance.

Two analysts have weighed in recently:

• Craig R. Kennison (Baird) rates Copart as "Buy" with a 100% historical win rate, suggesting strong confidence in the stock.
• Jeff Lick (Stephens & Co.) has a "Neutral" rating with a 0% historical win rate, signaling uncertainty.

The current price trend is up (2.93%), but the weighted expectations suggest a mismatch — a cautionary sign.

On fundamentals, Copart shines. Key factors include:

• Price-to-Cash Flow (PCF) = 63.45 (Model score: 3.00)
• Return on Assets (ROA) = 4.21% (Model score: 3.00)
• Gross Profit Margin (GPM) = 87.30% (Model score: 3.00)
• Profit-to-Market Value (Profit-MV) = 1.39 (Model score: 3.00)
• Net Income-to-Revenue = 111.42% (Model score: 3.00)
• Quick Ratio = 7.79 (Model score: 3.00)

These metrics indicate strong profitability and liquidity, supported by an internal diagnostic score of 8.48.

Money-Flow Trends

Despite the positive fundamentals, recent money-flow trends show a negative overall pattern. Big-money (large and extra-large) inflow ratios sit below 50%, at 49.24% and 41.08%, respectively. Retail flows also show a negative trend, with small inflows at 48.24% and medium at 47.81%.

This points to inflow hesitancy across all investor categories, suggesting a lack of conviction in the stock at the moment, even as the fundamentals are strong. The fund flow score is 7.42, labeled "good" — a mixed signal as it indicates decent liquidity, but still not enough to overcome bearish chart patterns.

Key Technical Signals

Copart's technical outlook is weak, with 2 bearish signals and 0 bullish indicators, and the internal diagnostic score is just 2.9. Here's a breakdown of recent signals:

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 1.97 — historically associated with a 43.84% win rate and an average return of -0.22%, signaling caution.
• Marubozu White: Internal diagnostic score: 1.38 — a bearish candlestick pattern with a 33.33% win rate and an average return of 0.17%, reinforcing the weak technical setup.
• Bearish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score: 5.36 — a neutral-biased pattern, but still bearish in context.

Recent signals were recorded on August 5, 6, 7, and 12, 2025, with WR Overbought dominating the narrative. The technical indicators suggest weak momentum and poor trend quality, with a clear bias against holding the stock for the near term.

Conclusion

Copart's fundamentals are robust, with an internal diagnostic score of 8.48, yet the technical outlook is bearish at 2.9 and money flows show reluctance across the board. Analysts remain split, with some bullish but others neutral.

Consider waiting for a pull-back before entering long positions. For now, investors are advised to monitor the stock closely for a potential breakout signal, ideally after a confirmed reversal in the technical pattern.