Stock Analysis | Church & Dwight Outlook - A Weak Technical Picture Amid Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Headline: Church & Dwight faces a weak technical outlook but shows resilience in fundamentals. The technical picture is bearish with an internal diagnostic score of 2.83, suggesting caution, while fundamentals are strong with an internal diagnostic score of 9.01.

News Highlights

• U.S. China Visa Policy Shift: The U.S. has announced new policies to revoke visas of Chinese students with ties to the Communist Party or studying in critical fields. This could have macroeconomic implications, though direct impact on Church & Dwight is unclear.
• India's Tarsons Products Reports Resilient Growth: Tarsons Products reported a 7% revenue increase amid industry challenges. This highlights global market resilience in consumer sectors, which may indirectly benefit companies like Church & Dwight in the hygiene space.
• Visa Expands APAC Product Offerings: Visa's new products in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to boost digital commerce. While not directly related, this could reflect broader economic activity, which may affect consumer spending and retail stocks like CHD.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average Rating Score: The simple mean rating score is 2.40, while the performance-weighted rating score is 2.37. Analyst ratings are consistent, with recent ratings leaning neutral to bearish.

Analyst Ratings Breakdown:

• JP Morgan (Andrea F. Teixeira): Sell (Historical win rate: 42.9%, average return: -0.04%)
• UBS (Peter Grom): Neutral (Historical win rate: 66.7%, average return: -4.97%)
• Barclays (Lauren Lieberman): Sell (Historical win rate: 50.0%, average return: -0.67%)
• Evercore ISI Group (Javier Escalante): Neutral (Historical win rate: 100.0%, average return: 3.14%)

Analyst views are mixed with more bearish than bullish calls, and the average rating is below the neutral threshold. This clashes with the positive 0.39% price rise in the last five days, suggesting a possible correction may be due.

Fundamental Highlights:

• Return on Equity (ROE): 4.35% (score: 0.2964)
• Return on Assets (ROA): 2.17% (score: -0.0102)
• Fixed Assets Turnover Ratio: 3.21 (score: 0.8883)
• Net Operating Cash Flow YoY Growth: -16.68% (score: 0.2616)
• Price-to-Sales (PS) Ratio: 16.50 (score: -0.0362)
• Operating Cycle: 103.40 days (score: -0.1551)

These fundamentals suggest mixed operational performance, with strong asset efficiency but weak cash flow growth.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and retail inflow patterns for Church & Dwight are negative across all categories. The internal diagnostic score for fund flows is 7.82 (good), indicating strong institutional caution.

• Large & Extra-large investors: Inflow ratios are 48.54% and 47.24%, respectively, showing negative trends in heavy capital moves.
• Small & Medium investors: Inflow ratios are 49.05% and 49.05%, with negative momentum as well.

This suggests that both retail and institutional investors are selling off or staying on the sidelines, signaling a lack of confidence.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for Church & Dwight is weak, with 2 bearish signals and no bullish ones in the last 5 days. The internal diagnostic score for technical indicators is 2.83 (weak).

• Williams %R Overbought: Internal diagnostic score of 2.51 (neutral rise), appears on 2025-08-22 and 2025-08-21.
• Williams %R Oversold: Internal diagnostic score of 1.98 (neutral bias), appears on 2025-08-26 and 2025-08-28.
• Marubozu White Candle: Internal diagnostic score of 4.01 (neutral rise), appears on 2025-08-27.

Technical Insights:

• Market is in a weak state, with a risk of decline.
• Bearish signals dominate (2 bearish vs. 0 bullish), reinforcing caution.
• Recent technical signals are scarce, indicating a relatively quiet market.

Conclusion

Church & Dwight is in a mixed but cautiously bearish position at the moment. While the fundamentals remain strong with an internal diagnostic score of 9.01, the technical outlook is weak (score of 2.83) and analyst sentiment is bearish or neutral. With negative money flows and mixed analyst calls, it may be wise to consider waiting for a clearer trend or a pullback before entering.