Stock Analysis | Church & Dwight Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Church & Dwight (CHD) appears to be in a technical slump, with bearish indicators dominating and a weak outlook, while fundamentals remain strong. The stock has risen slightly in recent days (0.54%), but this rise is at odds with the bearish sentiment from both technical analysis and analyst sentiment.

News Highlights

• On May 28, 2025, the U.S. announced a new visa policy that could impact Chinese students studying in the U.S. While not directly related to CHD, the broader geopolitical climate could influence consumer confidence and international trade flows, which indirectly affect consumer goods companies like Church & Dwight.
• May 30, 2025 saw ETFGI report that assets in the ETF industry in Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) hit a record $1.25 trillion. This points to growing investor interest in Asia, potentially increasing demand for globally diversified consumer goods companies like CHD.
• On May 30, 2025, Amazon announced a new team, ZeroOne, focused on inventing consumer products. While not a direct competitor to Church & Dwight, this highlights continued innovation in the consumer goods space, which could raise the competitive bar for traditional brands.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have shown a mixed stance toward CHD in the past 20 days. The simple average rating is 2.40, while the performance-weighted rating is slightly lower at 2.37. Analysts appear to be fairly consistent in their recommendations, with most issuing "Sell" or "Neutral" ratings. However, this is in contrast to the recent price trend, which has shown a modest rise.

Key fundamental metrics include:

• PE Ratio: 130.13 (internal diagnostic score: 9.40) – indicates high valuations.
• PS Ratio: 16.50 (internal diagnostic score: 2.00) – relatively high, suggesting cautious valuation.
• ROE: 4.35% (internal diagnostic score: 9.40) – reflects moderate profitability.
• ROA: 2.17% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00) – average profitability.
• Quick Ratio: 1.33 (internal diagnostic score: 2.00) – moderate liquidity.
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities YoY Growth Rate: -16.68% (internal diagnostic score: 9.40) – a decline in cash flow.
• NPM: 12.68% (internal diagnostic score: 9.40) – healthy net profit margin.
• Cost of Sales Ratio: 56.06% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00) – high cost of goods sold.
• Cash-UP: 17.25% (internal diagnostic score: 2.00) – reflects cash and short-term assets relative to liabilities.
• Operating Cycle: 103.40 days (internal diagnostic score: 2.00) – long time to convert inventory and receivables into cash.

Money-Flow Trends

Money-flow analysis shows a negative overall trend for Church & Dwight, with all investor categories—from small to extra-large—recording inflow ratios below 50%. The fund-flow score is 7.85 (good), which suggests that while there’s a net outflow, the impact may not be severe. Large institutional investors (block traders) also show a negative trend, which could signal caution among professional money managers.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Church & Dwight is in a weak position. The technical score is 3.08 (internal diagnostic score: weak), with 0 bullish and 2 bearish indicators. Notable signals include:

• WR Overbought – internal diagnostic score: 2.98. This indicator has historically led to an average return of -0.33% and a 50.94% win rate, signaling caution.
• MACD Golden Cross – internal diagnostic score: 3.19. Though traditionally bullish, this signal has had an average return of -0.83% and a 50.0% win rate, indicating recent underperformance.

Over the last five days, WR Overbought was active on May 19, 20, 21, and 22, 2025, indicating a persistent overbought condition. The MACD Golden Cross was detected on May 18, 2025, but it has since failed to follow through with a positive trend. Overall, the technical momentum is uncertain and bearish, and the indicators suggest a weak trend with limited upside potential.

Conclusion

Church & Dwight’s fundamentals remain strong, with high valuations and moderate profitability, but the technical and analyst sentiment suggest caution. The weak technical score and bearish indicators recommend avoiding entry into the stock at this time. Investors are advised to wait for a clearer trend or a pull-back before committing capital. Additionally, the mixed analyst ratings suggest that while some see potential, the majority remain bearish or neutral. A watchful approach is prudent for now.