Stock Analysis | Church & Dwight Outlook - Bearish Technicals and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Church & Dwight (CHD) is under pressure from weak technical indicators and a bearish money-flow backdrop, despite some fundamental strengths. Current stance: Caution advised.

News Highlights

Recent headlines in the household goods sector haven't directly impacted Church & Dwight. However, a few developments are worth noting:

• E-Home Household Service announced a share consolidation plan. While not directly related to CHD, such moves often signal capital structure adjustments or cost discipline. This could indirectly influence perceptions of household goods companies in general.
• Indian beauty retailer Nykaa reported soaring profits. The rising demand for premium household and beauty products globally may indirectly benefit companies like CHD, though the stock is currently facing short-term technical headwinds.
• Global ETF assets hit a record $1.25 trillion. Broader market liquidity is strong, but CHD’s recent performance does not reflect the same optimism.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided, with a simple average rating of 2.40 and a weighted rating of 2.37. Recent ratings show 2 "Neutral" and 3 "Sell" calls from four active institutions, indicating rating consistency but bearish sentiment. Notably, these ratings contrast with a 0.28% rise in the stock price recently, suggesting a mismatch between current expectations and market action.

Fundamental Highlights

• Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders is at 100.0% (Score: 7.48). This is a positive signal, but it's offset by lower net operating cash flow and rising liabilities.
• Equity multiplier is at 2.00 (Score: 7.48). This indicates moderate leverage, but high weight in the model suggests sensitivity to leverage risk.
• Interest coverage ratio is at 19.82% (Score: 7.48). A strong value, but the negative weight in the model indicates caution with debt servicing.
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate) is at -16.68% (Score: 7.48). This is a red flag for cash generation and a major drag on performance.
• Inventory turnover days is at 66.72 (Score: 7.48). A moderate value but below best-in-class levels, suggesting room for improvement in inventory management.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is moving out of CHD across all sizes, with a negative trend observed in overall inflow ratios. The fund flow score is 7.87, which is considered "good" by our internal diagnostics. Despite this positive score, the block inflow ratio is 49.00%, suggesting that even institutional activity is trending downward. This divergence between score and trend is a key warning sign for short-term performance.

Key Technical Signals

CHD's technical picture is weak, with a score of 2.88, suggesting it's better to avoid for now. Bearish signals outweigh bullish ones 3 to 0.

Indicator Score Details

• WR Overbought: Internal diagnostic score: 2.79 — a weak signal that historically has returned -0.42% on average.
• WR Oversold: Internal diagnostic score: 2.21 — mixed signal with 44.6% win rate and 0.05% average return.
• Dividend Payable Date: Internal diagnostic score: 1.00 — strongly bearish with a 33.3% win rate and -1.19% average return.
• Marubozu White: Internal diagnostic score: 5.54 — the only positive signal, with a 57.1% win rate and 0.46% average return.

Recent Chart Patterns

Key events include:

• 2025-08-22: WR Overbought signal appeared, indicating a potential overextended rally.
• 2025-08-26: WR Oversold signal emerged, suggesting a possible correction is due.
• 2025-09-02: Dividend Payable Date event occurred, historically associated with bearish sentiment.
• 2025-08-28: Another WR Oversold signal reinforced the correction signal.
• 2025-08-27: A Marubozu White candle appeared, suggesting bullish momentum — but this was short-lived.

Technical Summary

The key insights from the technical analysis include:

• Weak technical momentum with 3 bearish vs 0 bullish signals.
• Low activity in technical indicators over the last 5 days, suggesting a quiet but potentially volatile market.
• Risk of further decline is elevated based on overbought and oversold conditions.

Conclusion

Church & Dwight is currently in a weak technical state with a low internal score and bearish money flow. Analysts are cautious, and while fundamentals have some positives, they are not enough to offset the risks. Consider waiting for a clearer breakout or a pullback before entering long positions. Watch for follow-up earnings and technical pattern developments in the coming weeks.