Stock Analysis | Avery Dennison Outlook - Weak Technicals, Mixed Analysts, and Positive Money Flows

Market Snapshot

Current trend: Price dropped -0.35% — bearish signals dominate technically. The stock is showing weakness on the technical side with four bearish indicators and no bullish ones in the past five days, according to our internal diagnostic score (0-10) of 3.27. This suggests caution for short-term traders and investors.

News Highlights

• Mondelez sues Aldi over packaging copycat claims – The Oreo maker is alleging Aldi's private-label products are too similar to its branded items. While this news isn't directly related to Avery Dennison, it highlights industry-wide concerns about packaging and brand protection, potentially affecting players in the broader packaging sector.
• EPE USA announces sustainable packaging innovations – The company is pushing for reusable and recyclable materials to meet consumer demand for eco-friendly practices. This trend is likely to impact Avery Dennison, as sustainability is a growing priority in the labeling and packaging industry.
• Cleanfarms launches ag-plastics recycling pilot – The initiative to help farmers recycle bale wrap and silage plastics shows a broader shift in waste management practices. Companies like Avery Dennison, which serve diverse industries, could benefit from such sustainability-focused trends.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Average analyst rating: 3.80 (simple mean), and a weighted rating of 2.43 based on historical performance. Analysts are divided, with some calling for a "Strong Buy" and others a "Buy," but the overall market sentiment remains neutral.

Analyst performance varies:

• Jeffrey Zekauskas (JP Morgan): 75.0% historical win rate
• Anthony Pettinari (Citigroup): 66.7% historical win rate
• John McNulty (BMO Capital): 25.0% historical win rate

These differences highlight a lack of consensus among analysts, with the current price trend of -0.35% aligning with the generally cautious outlook.

Key fundamental factors:

• Profit-MV: -0.08 (model score: 3.93)
• PE: 82.62 (model score: 3.93)
• Operating cycle: 121.77 (model score: 3.93)
• Net assets per share (growth rate): -2.65% (model score: 3.93)
• Equity multiplier: 389.18% (model score: 3.93)

These mixed signals suggest that while the company holds a relatively stable position, there are underlying concerns about profitability and asset efficiency.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is still in: 50.54% of block trades are inflows. Institutional and large-cap investors are showing a positive trend, with large and extra-large inflow ratios at 52.96% and 48.85%, respectively. This contrasts with the negative technical outlook and could indicate some long-term confidence in the company.

On the retail side, 51.34% of small trades are inflows, suggesting retail investors are still buying in despite the recent bearish technical signals. This divergence between big-money and small-money flows is a key indicator to monitor for possible turning points.

Key Technical Signals

Our technical analysis shows 4 bearish indicators and 0 bullish ones over the past five days, with a strong bearish tilt based on the internal diagnostic score (0-10) of 3.27. Here’s what’s happening on the chart:

• Marubozu White (score: 3.27): A strong bearish signal indicating a potential reversal.
• Bearish Engulfing (score: 2.27): A bearish reversal pattern with a low historical win rate.
• WR Overbought (score: 1.00): Suggests overbought conditions are leading to downward pressure.
• MACD Death Cross (score: 3.62): A neutral to bearish signal indicating weakening momentum.
• WR Oversold (score: 6.20): A rare bullish indicator that’s neutral in context of the broader bearish trend.

Recent patterns (by date):

• 2025-08-22: WR Overbought, Marubozu White
• 2025-08-26: WR Oversold
• 2025-08-28: WR Oversold, MACD Death Cross, Bearish Engulfing

This mix of bearish and overbought signals suggests the stock is in a volatile and uncertain phase with no clear direction. Investors should be cautious until more bullish momentum appears.

Conclusion

Consider waiting for a pull-back before committing capital to Avery Dennison. The stock is technically weak with internal diagnostic score (0-10) of 3.27, and while institutional money is still flowing in, the fundamental and technical indicators suggest a cautious approach. Keep an eye on the next earnings report and any further developments in the sustainability and packaging sectors, which could offer more clarity on the company's long-term direction.