Stock Analysis | Avery Dennison Outlook - Bearish Momentum, Mixed Analyst Views, and Strong Fund-Flow Inflows

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Avery Dennison (AVY) is currently underperforming technically, with bearish signals dominating and no bullish triggers in sight, according to our internal diagnostic score of 1.92.

The stock is being weighed down by negative momentum, but recent fund-flow data suggests positive inflows from both retail and institutional investors.

2. News Highlights

• Oreo’s Parent Company Sues Aldi – Mondelez International is taking legal action against Aldi, alleging that the discount grocery chain is copying the packaging of its popular cookies and crackers. While this doesn't directly affect Avery Dennison, it highlights growing tensions in the packaging and consumer goods sector over brand identity.
• Ball Corporation’s CFO Departs – Ball, a key competitor in the packaging industry, announced its CFO's departure. This adds uncertainty to the sector, though Avery Dennison’s fundamentals show mixed signals that may not be immediately affected.
• EPE USA Focuses on Sustainable Packaging – The push for eco-friendly solutions is gaining traction, with companies like EPE USA leading the way. While Avery Dennison is not directly tied to this news, the broader trend could influence customer and investor sentiment toward sustainability.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analyst ratings are mixed, with recent predictions showing a simple average rating of 3.80 and a performance-weighted rating of 2.43. This suggests a relatively neutral stance, with no strong consensus.

• Citigroup (Analyst: Anthony Pettinari): Historical win rate of 66.7%, most recent rating: Neutral.
• JP Morgan (Analyst: Jeffrey J Zekauskas): Historical win rate of 75.0%, most recent rating: Neutral.
• BMO Capital (Analyst: John McNulty): Historical win rate of 25.0%, most recent rating: Buy.

These ratings do not align with the recent price trend, which has seen a 2.97% rise. Analysts appear cautious or mixed, while the stock price is showing upward movement—this divergence may indicate either a potential correction or a lag in analyst expectations.

Key fundamental factors and model scores:

• Net Assets Per Share (Growth Rate vs. Beginning of Year): -2.65% (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Shareholders’ Equity / Total Liabilities: 34.58% (internal diagnostic score: 3)
• Price to Cash Flow (PCF): 74.79 (internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Operating Cycle: 121.77 days (internal diagnostic score: 0)
• Basic Earnings Per Share (YoY Growth): 3.92% (internal diagnostic score: 1)
• Cash-UP Score: 0.23 (internal diagnostic score: 3)

While the cash-up and equity-to-liability ratios show moderate strength, the operating cycle and cash flow multiples are weak, dragging down the overall fundamentals.

4. Money-Flow Trends

Recent fund-flow data for Avery Dennison is positive across all investor categories:

• Small investors: 51.87% inflow ratio (trend: positive)
• Medium investors: 50.49% inflow ratio (trend: positive)
• Large investors: 51.44% inflow ratio (trend: positive)
• Extra-large investors: 50.48% inflow ratio (trend: positive)

Our internal diagnostic score for fund flows is 7.86, which is categorized as "good." This suggests that both retail and institutional investors are showing confidence in the stock despite the weak technical picture.

5. Key Technical Signals

Technically, the stock is in a weaker state, with three bearish indicators and no bullish ones in the last five days. Our internal diagnostic score is 1.92, signaling a weak trend and potential downside risk.

Key recent indicators by date:

• 2025-08-13: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-12: WR Overbought, MACD Golden Cross
• 2025-08-15: Bearish Engulfing
• 2025-08-14: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-06: Bearish Engulfing

These patterns indicate increased bearish pressure, especially with the WR Overbought and Bearish Engulfing signals showing internal diagnostic scores of 1 and 2.27 respectively.

6. Conclusion

Despite positive fund-flow trends and a decent fundamental score of 4.02, Avery Dennison’s technical profile remains weak. With bearish signals dominating and no clear reversal patterns, it may be wise to wait for a pull-back or clearer signs of stabilization before entering long positions.

Investors should also keep a close eye on upcoming analyst updates and earnings developments, as the stock remains in a precarious technical position.