Stock Analysis | Amcor Outlook - Weak Technicals and Mixed Fundamentals as Earnings Loom

1. Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Amcor (AMCR) is showing a sharp price decline of -11.10% recently, with a low internal diagnostic score of 2.74, signaling poor technical conditions and a bearish trend. The fundamental score, at 3.79, is moderate but lacks strong upside momentum.

2. News Highlights

• Oreo's parent sues Aldi over packaging similarities, a legal dispute that could affect packaging giants like Amcor if similar actions follow in the industry. The lawsuit highlights rising brand protection concerns in the food packaging sector.
• EPE USA is promoting sustainable packaging solutions, including reusable and recyclable materials. This aligns with growing consumer demand for eco-friendly products and could present both opportunities and cost pressures for packaging firms like Amcor.
• Himachal Pradesh introduces a deposit refund scheme to tackle non-biodegradable waste. While this is a regional policy, it points to a growing global shift toward sustainable packaging practices, which could influence Amcor’s long-term strategy and market positioning.

3. Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Amcor has seen 1 analyst rating in the last 20 days, with a simple average score of 3.00 and a weighted average score of 2.08. These scores indicate a generally neutral to bearish outlook from analysts.

Analysts and prices align on the bearish trend, as the stock is down -11.10% recently. The ratings suggest market caution and a lack of conviction about near-term upside.

Key Fundamental Factors

• Operating revenue (YoY growth rate): -1.49% — internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Net cash flow from operating activities (YoY growth rate): -30.26% — internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Net cash flow from operating activities / Operating revenue: 2.41% — internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Shareholders’ equity / Total liabilities: 30.58% — internal diagnostic score: 4.00
• Equity multiplier: 4.27x — internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• Price-to-Sales (PS): 4.61x — internal diagnostic score: 3.00
• Profit-to-Market Value (Profit-MV): 0.34% — internal diagnostic score: 1.00

4. Money-Flow Trends

Despite the weak technicals, fund flows are showing a positive tilt. The internal diagnostic score for fund flows is 7.94, which is strong, indicating that institutional and large money flows are entering the stock. For example:

• Large and extra-large inflow ratios: Over 50% of large and above average-sized investors are showing a positive trend.
• Block flow ratio: 50.6% inflow — pointing to positive institutional interest.

However, this contrasts with the retail (small) flow, which is negative, suggesting retail traders are exiting the stock.

5. Key Technical Signals

The technical picture for AMCR is clearly bearish with 7 bearish indicators and 0 bullish signals, giving the stock a low internal diagnostic score of 2.74. The overall trend is weak and warns of a possible further decline.

Recent Technical Indicators

• Williams %R (WR) Overbought — internal diagnostic score: 1.00
• Williams %R (WR) Oversold — internal diagnostic score: 2.00
• MACD Death Cross — internal diagnostic score: 1.00

Chart Patterns by Date

• 2025-08-13: WR Overbought
• 2025-08-14: WR Oversold, Long Lower Shadow, MACD Death Cross
• 2025-08-15: WR Oversold
• 2025-08-18: WR Oversold, RSI Oversold
• 2025-08-19: WR Oversold

These signals point to mixed volatility, with a strong bearish bias from the recent death cross and overbought/sold divergences.

6. Conclusion

With a weak technical score of 2.74, a moderate fundamental score of 3.79, and a strong fund-flow score of 7.94, Amcor appears to be in a mixed but bearish situation. While institutional money is flowing in, the technicals suggest caution and a risk of further downside.

Actionable takeaway: Investors should consider waiting for a clearer rebound signal, especially with earnings and dividend announcements coming up. For now, avoiding new long positions may be prudent, and those holding AMCR should watch for a potential pullback with better technical alignment before considering a trade.