Stock Analysis | Amcor Outlook - Weak Technicals, Mixed Analysts, and Mixed Fundamentals

Market Snapshot
Headline Takeaway: Amcor (AMCR) shows weak technical indicators with three bearish signals and no bullish ones, while the stock price has fallen by 4.38% recently—investors should proceed with caution.

News Highlights
    
Origin Materials partners with Berlin Packaging for sustainable PET caps – This collaboration aims to boost sustainable packaging solutions, potentially improving long-term demand for Amcor's materials. While positive for the industry, it may not have an immediate impact on Amcor’s stock.
    
Packaging Corp of America reports strong earnings and revenue – The company’s Q2 earnings of $2.67 per share beat estimates and revenue hit $2.2 billion, showing strength in the sector. However, Amcor’s fundamentals lag behind, highlighting a mixed industry outlook.
    
Preferred Packaging launches compostable and recyclable fiber trays – This innovation aligns with growing demand for sustainable packaging, but Amcor will need to catch up with such product developments to remain competitive.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals
The current analyst consensus for Amcor shows a simple average rating score of 4.67 and a performance-weighted rating of 0.54, indicating a strong divergence in expectations. Analysts from Truist Securities, Wells Fargo, and Jefferies have all issued "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings recently, yet these are not backed by strong historical success. The current price trend shows a downward move of 4.38%, which is somewhat aligned with the performance-weighted bearish outlook.

Key fundamentals include:
    
Operating Cycle: 119.89 days – The company’s operating cycle is moderate. Internal diagnostic score: 2 (on a scale of 0-10).
    
ROE (Annualized): 18.47% – Strong return on equity. Internal diagnostic score: 2.
    
Operating Revenue YoY Growth: -1.49% – A decline in revenue. Internal diagnostic score: 3.
    
Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities / Operating Revenue: 2.41% – Weak operating cash margin. Internal diagnostic score: 2.
    
Net Profit YoY Growth: 23.78% – Strong profit growth. Internal diagnostic score: 3.
While Amcor shows strong profitability growth, the revenue decline and weak cash flow margins indicate a mixed fundamental picture.

Money-Flow Trends
Big-money investors are cautious, with an overall negative trend in fund flows. The inflow ratios for large, extra-large, and medium investors all show below-average participation, with the most negative trend among extra-large investors. Retail flows also show a downward pattern.
    
Large investors' inflow ratio: 49.68%
    
Extra-large investors' inflow ratio: 49.58%
    
Small investors' inflow ratio: 49.61%
Amcor’s fund-flow score is a 7.9 (good), suggesting that despite the negative trends, there is still some interest in the stock at the retail level. However, the lack of large-player participation raises red flags.

Key Technical Signals
Amcor’s technical indicators are currently bearish, with three negative signals and no bullish ones. The technical score is 1.78, which is among the lowest possible readings and indicates a high risk of further price decline.

    
Williams %R Oversold – Score: 3.0 (internal diagnostic score), suggesting a moderate bearish bias despite the "oversold" label. Historically, this indicator has had a 50% win rate and an average return of -1.00% after firing.
    
MACD Death Cross – Score: 1.35, a strong bearish signal. It has historically shown a 35.71% win rate and a 3.50% negative average return.
    
MACD Golden Cross – Score: 1.0, a weak bearish signal. Historically, this has only been correct 30.77% of the time with a 6.70% average negative return.

Recent chart patterns include a MACD Death Cross on July 28, WR Oversold signals on July 31 and August 1, and a MACD Golden Cross on July 21. The signals are conflicting but ultimately bearish.

Overall technical insight: The momentum is weak, with three bearish signals outpacing zero bullish ones. Technical traders should consider reducing exposure or avoiding new positions.

Conclusion
Amcor is currently in a challenging market phase. While fundamentals show some strength in profitability, the revenue decline and weak technical momentum suggest caution. The fund flows are mixed, and analyst ratings, though positive, lack a strong historical track record. Investors are advised to wait for a pullback or clearer bullish signals before entering new positions. For now, Amcor remains high-risk and low-reward in the near term.