Stock Analysis | Amcor Outlook - A Weak Technical Picture Amid Mixed Analyst Sentiment

Market Snapshot

Amcor (AMCR) is currently in a weak technical position with bearish momentum dominating, while analyst sentiment remains mixed. Recent price action has seen a decline of -2.99%, which aligns with the bearish technical signals and contrasts with the positive but historically underperforming analyst ratings.

News Highlights

Recent news includes:

• Jefferies Financial Group Inc. increases its stake in Packaging Corporation of America (PKG): This institutional move highlights strong interest in the packaging sector but doesn’t directly impact Amcor. Analysts remain split, with some seeing potential for the sector to rebound.
• Trans Freight Containers reports a 16.13% rise in net profit for the June 2025 quarter: While this is a positive development for the logistics sector, it may reflect broader economic activity rather than a direct tailwind for Amcor. However, it suggests that the packaging industry might see increased demand as global trade improves.
• Apple introduces macOS container support for Kali Linux: This tech development is unlikely to impact Amcor directly but shows growing interest in containerization technology, which could eventually influence packaging logistics in the long term.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have been mixed in their views, with three recent ratings issued in the last 20 days. The simple average rating is 4.67, while the performance-weighted rating is 0.54, indicating that analysts with stronger historical performance have issued more pessimistic ratings.

The rating consistency is low, with two "Strong Buy" and one "Buy" ratings issued by three different analysts. However, the historical performance of these analysts is weak, with win rates ranging from 0.0% to 25.0%, which casts doubt on the reliability of these bullish ratings.

Fundamental indicators show a mixed picture:

• EV/EBIT: 64.72 - Score: 1 (internal diagnostic score out of 10)
• Operating cycle: 119.89 days - Score: 2
• Operating revenue YoY growth: -1.49% - Score: 3
• Rate of return on total assets: 3.72% - Score: 0
• Cash-UP: -0.50 - Score: 2
• Equity multiplier (DuPont): 4.26% - Score: 0

While some fundamentals show a reasonable score, the overall fundamental score of 4.56 suggests a mixed outlook. The weak revenue growth and poor return on assets are concerning, and the low scores on these metrics indicate that earnings strength is not a current strength for Amcor.

Money-Flow Trends

Money flow data reveals a negative overall trend in institutional and large investor activity, despite some positive inflows in the medium and large categories.

• Small investor trend: Negative, with inflow ratio of 0.499.
• Medium investor trend: Positive, with inflow ratio of 0.528.
• Large investor trend: Positive, with inflow ratio of 0.502.
• Extra-large investor trend: Negative, with inflow ratio of 0.491.

Overall, the fund flow score is 7.88, which is considered "good," but this is somewhat misleading given the negative block trend (0.494), which suggests that big money is not currently building a position in Amcor. The mixed inflows indicate that while some investors are accumulating, the broader trend is bearish.

Key Technical Signals

Amcor's technical outlook is weak, with three bearish indicators and no bullish ones active in the recent five-day period. The technical score is 1.78, indicating a poor technical position.

Key technical indicators and their internal diagnostic scores:

• Williams %R (WR) Oversold: Score: 3.0 - This indicator is neutral to bullish but has historically returned -1.00% on average, with a 50.0% win rate.
• MACD Death Cross: Score: 1.35 - Strongly bearish with a historical average return of -8.00% and a 35.7% win rate.
• MACD Golden Cross: Score: 1.0 - Weakly bearish, with a historical average return of -67.00% and a 30.8% win rate.

Recent technical signals by date:

• 2025-07-23: MACD Golden Cross (bearish)
• 2025-08-01: WR Oversold (neutral to bullish)
• 2025-07-28: MACD Death Cross (bearish)
• 2025-07-21: WR Oversold (neutral to bullish)
• 2025-07-31: WR Oversold (neutral to bullish)

The overall trend is bearish, with the key insights indicating a weak market state and a high risk of further declines. The bearish signals are currently dominant, with no clear signs of a reversal in the near term.

Conclusion

Amcor is currently in a weak technical position with bearish momentum dominating the chart. While some institutional investors are showing interest, the broader trend in money flow and analyst sentiment is not favorable. With a technical score of 1.78 and three bearish signals, it may be wise to consider waiting for a potential pull-back before entering a long position. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming earnings report and any changes in analyst sentiment for potential signs of a reversal.