Stock Analysis | Amcor Outlook - Mixed Signals and a Weak Technical Profile

Market Snapshot

Amcor (AMCR) is facing a mixed market environment, with weak technical indicators and a sharp 14.99% price drop in recent weeks. Our internal diagnostic score (0-10) for technical strength is just 2.06, suggesting a bearish tilt.

News Highlights

• EPE USA advances in sustainable packaging (May 28): The company is making strides in eco-friendly materials, a trend that could influence Amcor and other packaging peers.
• Mondelez sues Aldi over packaging design (May 31): Legal battles over packaging are heating up, potentially impacting Amcor as a supplier or competitor in the packaging space.
• Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio cuts AMCR stake (May 31): Institutional investors are trimming their positions in packaging firms, raising concerns about sector sentiment.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Amcor’s fundamental outlook is a moderate 5.95, reflecting a balanced mix of positive and negative signals. Here’s a closer look at the key factors:

• Simple average analyst rating: 3.00
  
• Performance-weighted rating: 2.08
  
• Analyst consistency: Mixed — one analyst from Baird labeled the outlook as neutral, with a perfect historical win rate but a negative average return of -3.21% from that single prediction.
• Price trend vs. expectations: Aligned — a falling price trend matches the relatively neutral market expectations.

Key fundamental factors (value and internal model score):

• Annualized return on equity (ROE): 18.47% (1 internal score) — decent ROE but not enough to outweigh weaker signals.
• Total operating revenue YoY growth: -1.49% (3 internal score) — a modest decline in revenue growth, though not catastrophic.
• Net cash flow from operating activities YoY growth: -30.26% (4 internal score) — cash flow contraction raises concerns.
• Price-to-sales (PS) ratio: 4.61 (2 internal score) — relatively high for the sector, indicating potential overvaluation.
• Price-to-earnings (PE) ratio: 89.47 (0 internal score) — extremely high, suggesting overvaluation and weak earnings.
• Total profit / EBIT: 75.82% (2 internal score) — a healthy margin but not sufficient to lift the stock.

Money-Flow Trends

Big money is cautiously optimistic. The fund-flow score is 7.91 (good), with large and extra-large investors showing inflows of 50.18% and 50.79% respectively. However, small investors are withdrawing (47.13% inflow), and the overall market is mixed: large and extra-large flows are positive, but small and medium flows are negative. The overall inflow ratio is 50.44%, indicating that institutional money is still entering the stock despite the weak technical backdrop.

Key Technical Signals

Amcor’s technical indicators are deeply bearish. The technical score is 2.06, with 2 bearish signals and zero bullish ones in the last 5 days. Here’s the breakdown:

• Williams %R (WR) Oversold — score: 3.12 (internal diagnostic score). While technically oversold, its average return is just 1.00% and the win rate is 50.77%, making it a weak bullish signal.
• Marubozu White — score: 1.00 (internal diagnostic score). This candlestick pattern is biased bearish with an average return of -1.23% and a win rate of 36.36%.

Recent indicators (last 5 days):

• 20250822: WR Oversold
• 20250821: WR Oversold, Marubozu White
• 20250825: WR Oversold
• 20250819: WR Oversold
• 20250820: WR Oversold

Key insight: The technical side is weak, and it is suggested to avoid the stock. Momentum remains bearish, with no clear signs of a turnaround.

Conclusion

Amcor is at a crossroads, with mixed fundamentals, weak technical signals, and diverging analyst views. The recent drop of 14.99% in price has not been met with clear buying interest, and institutional money is split. Given the low technical score (2.06) and bearish candlestick patterns, we recommend caution and a wait-and-see approach. Investors may want to hold off or consider waiting for a potential pullback before committing capital — but for now, the outlook remains clouded.