Stock Analysis | Amcor Outlook - A Divergent Technical Picture and Mixed Fundamentals

Market Snapshot

Takeaway: Amcor (AMCR) is showing mixed signals across different dimensions—while recent money flow trends look encouraging, technical indicators suggest caution. The stock has fallen by -3.47% recently, but is this a buying opportunity or a red flag?

News Highlights

Recent news related to Amcor's industry and competitors has been varied:

• Mondelez International vs. Aldi: The Oreo maker is suing Aldi for allegedly copying packaging designs for cookies and crackers. This could indicate a broader industry focus on branding and intellectual property, which might affect Amcor as a packaging supplier.
• Sustainable Packaging Innovations: Companies like EPE USA are stepping up their sustainable packaging solutions, which aligns with the growing consumer demand for eco-friendly products. Amcor, as a packaging leader, could benefit from such trends if it continues to innovate in this space.
• Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio: The fund has reduced its stake in Packaging Co. of America (PKG), a competitor of Amcor. This suggests some institutional caution in the broader packaging sector.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts remain neutral toward Amcor, with a simple average rating of 3.00 and a performance-weighted rating of 2.08. However, this neutrality is backed by just one analyst in the past 20 days—Ghansham Panjabi from Baird—whose historical accuracy is 100%, but his average return is negative at -4.35%. This implies divergence in expectations and uncertainty in the broader analyst community.

Amcor’s fundamentals score 2.53 (internal diagnostic score 0-10), signaling modest performance. Key factors include:

• Operating Cycle: 119.89 days (internal diagnostic score: 2.10)
• Total Operating Revenue YoY Growth Rate: -1.49% (internal diagnostic score: 2.75)
• Net Profit Margin: 5.46% (internal diagnostic score: 0.65)
• Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities / Operating Revenue: 2.41% (internal diagnostic score: 1.50)
• Shareholders’ Equity / Total Liabilities: 30.58% (internal diagnostic score: 1.54)
• Equity Multiplier: 4.27x (internal diagnostic score: 1.70)
• PCF (Price to Cash Flow): 34.91x (internal diagnostic score: 2.68)

Though the company shows decent leverage and liquidity, the weak revenue growth and declining profit margins hint at potential operational challenges. These fundamentals appear to align with the downward price trend but clash with the recent positive money flows.

Money-Flow Trends

Amcor’s recent money-flow patterns are mixed. While overall inflow ratio is 50.33%, suggesting a slight positive bias among investors, retail sentiment is negative (Small_trend: negative, inflow ratio: 47.56%).

• Large and Extra-Large Investors: Are inflowing steadily, with inflow ratios of 50.08% and 50.76%, respectively.
• Block Flow: Is also positive, with a block inflow ratio of 50.62%.

This divergence means institutional confidence is present, but retail and smaller investors are pulling back—possibly indicating uncertainty or a short-term correction.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for Amcor is weak—an internal diagnostic score of 3.73, suggesting it’s best to avoid for now. Here’s the breakdown:

• Williams %R (WR) Oversold: Score: 3.21 – This is a neutral-to-bullish indicator historically, but recent readings have not translated into strong price momentum.
• Marubozu White: Score: 1.00 – A bearish candlestick pattern, suggesting selling pressure despite a long body. The pattern has historically returned -1.44% on average, with a 30.8% win rate.
• Bullish Engulfing: Score: 6.97 – This is a positive signal, but not enough to offset the bearish bias. Historically, it has averaged -0.72% return with a 70% win rate—mixed effectiveness.

Recent indicators by date include:

• 2025-09-02: WR Oversold
• 2025-09-03: WR Oversold
• 2025-09-02: WR Oversold
• 2025-08-27: WR Oversold + Bullish Engulfing
• 2025-08-29: Marubozu White

Overall, the technical indicators suggest a volatile, unclear trend with more bearish than bullish signals.

Conclusion

Amcor is in a mixed situation: while institutional money continues to flow in and sustainable packaging trends offer long-term potential, the technical and fundamental signals are cautious to bearish.

Actionable takeaway: Given the weak technical outlook and mixed fundamentals, investors should consider waiting for a clearer breakout or a positive earnings surprise. For now, proceed with caution and monitor key levels for potential reversals or corrections.