Stitch Fix's Q4 2025: Contradictions Emerge on Active Client Growth, Tariff Impact on AOV, and Private Brand Influence

Generated by AI AgentEarnings Decrypt
Thursday, Sep 25, 2025 2:43 am ET2min read
Aime RobotAime Summary

- Stitch Fix reported $311.2M Q4 revenue (4.4% YOY growth) but 4.2% sequential decline, with FY26 guidance projecting $1.28B–$1.33B revenue and 43%–44% gross margin.

- Men's and non-apparel categories drove double-digit growth, while AI enhancements improved personalization and client engagement through style assistants and visualization tools.

- Active client growth showed contradictions: Q1 net adds flat to -0.5% QoQ, but Q3 FY26 expected to turn positive, with holiday strategies focusing on family accounts and expanded assortments.

- Tariff impacts on AOV were mitigated through pricing strategies, while $124M SG&A reduction in FY25 boosted adjusted EBITDA margins by 170 bps despite cash compensation mix pressures.

The above is the analysis of the conflicting points in this earnings call

Date of Call: September 24, 2025

Financials Results

  • Revenue: $311.2M, up 4.4% YOY (adjusted) and down 4.2% sequentially
  • Gross Margin: 43.6%, down 100 bps YOY and down 60 bps sequentially

Guidance:

  • FY26 revenue expected at $1.28B–$1.33B (return to full-year growth).
  • FY26 adjusted EBITDA expected at $30M–$45M; free cash flow positive.
  • Q1 revenue expected at $333M–$338M; Q1 adjusted EBITDA $8M–$11M.
  • FY26 gross margin expected at 43%–44%.
  • Advertising expected at 9%–10% of revenue in FY26.
  • Active client YOY growth rates to improve; QoQ net adds to inflect positive in Q3 FY26.
  • Q1 active clients roughly flat to down ~0.5% QoQ.
  • Shifting compensation mix toward cash (pressures adjusted EBITDA; benefits net income).

Business Commentary:

* Revenue Growth and Market Share: - reported revenue of $311.2 million for Q4, marking a 4.4% adjusted revenue growth and their second consecutive quarter of top-line growth. - The growth was driven by improvements in client experience, assortment, and a strategic focus on personalized shopping.

  • Active Client Engagement and Retention:
  • The company achieved six consecutive quarters of year-over-year increases in revenue per active client, which reached $549.
  • This trend is attributed to acquiring and retaining highly engaged clients, reflecting the effectiveness of their client-centric strategy.

  • Men's and Non-Apparel Category Performance:

  • Stitch Fix's men's business delivered double-digit revenue growth in Q4, contributing to a positive full-year performance.
  • Expansion into non-apparel categories and the addition of established brands were key drivers, with footwear and athleisure leading the growth.

  • AI Integration and Client Experience Enhancements:

  • The company is leveraging generative AI to improve personalization and client engagement, which includes the rollout of an AI style assistant and a style visualization feature.
  • These innovations help Stitch Fix meet clients' individual needs more precisely, enhancing the overall client experience.

  • Cost Management and Financial Discipline:

  • Stitch Fix achieved a significant reduction in SG&A spend by $124 million in FY '25, leading to an adjusted EBITDA margin increase of 170 basis points.
  • This improvement is due to operational efficiencies, strategic cost management, and a focus on sustainable growth.

Sentiment Analysis:

  • “Revenue of $311.2 million exceeded our guidance… second consecutive quarter of revenue growth.” “We once again gained market share in the U.S. apparel market.” “FY ’26 guidance anticipates a return to full year revenue growth.” “Adjusted EBITDA… $8.7M… ahead of guidance.” “We generated $9.3M of free cash flow… ended the year with $242.7M in cash… and no debt.”

Q&A:

  • Question from Dana Telsey (Telsey Advisory Group LLC): Where are you seeing the most growth from new brands, and how are tariffs impacting AOV?
    Response: Growth is led by footwear, denim, athleisure, and established brands across women and men (men up double digits), and AOV/AUR increases are not driven by tariffs due to effective mitigation.

  • Question from Dana Telsey (Telsey Advisory Group LLC): From whom are you taking share, and how are you planning for the holiday period?
    Response: They expect continued share gains via superior personalization and will lean into holiday with flexibility features (e.g., Family Accounts), stronger assortment/CRM; active client net adds expected to inflect positive in Q3 (Q1 roughly flat to -0.5%).

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