Stifel Financial’s Asset and Deposit Growth: A Buy Signal in a Resilient Wealth Management Sector?

Stifel Financial’s Q2 and Q3 2025 results have sparked renewed interest in its stock, with the firm reporting a 9% year-over-year increase in total client assets to $522.3 billion and an 87% surge in treasury deposits compared to July 2024 [1]. These figures, coupled with a record $1.28 billion in net revenue for Q2 2025, underscore the company’s ability to navigate a volatile market environment. But does this performance justify a “buy” recommendation in a sector still grappling with macroeconomic headwinds?

The wealth management industry in 2025 has demonstrated surprising resilience. Despite a sharp market correction in April 2025 triggered by unexpected tariff announcements, the S&P 500 rebounded 26.20% by Q3, aided by a robust U.S. labor market and low unemployment [2]. Stifel’s growth in fee-based client assets—up 14% to $209.1 billion—reflects its success in capitalizing on this recovery while emphasizing long-term, disciplined strategies for clients [1]. Treasury deposits, a critical metric for liquidity and fund-gathering, surged 87%, outpacing declines in money market and insured product balances, which highlights the firm’s adaptability to shifting client preferences [1].

Analysts have taken notice. Stifel’s stock now carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, with eight brokerages averaging a $115.78 price target. Citigroup upgraded its stance to “buy” in July 2025, raising its target to $135.00, while Wall Street Zen moved from “sell” to “hold” in early August [1]. These upgrades follow Q2 results that exceeded expectations, including $1.71 in core earnings per share and a 6% year-over-year revenue increase [3]. The firm’s ability to grow deposits and assets in a high-interest-rate environment—a sector-wide challenge—further strengthens its case as a defensive play.

Yet risks remain. Commercial real estate and leveraged loan markets remain vulnerable to prolonged high rates, and geopolitical tensions could reignite volatility [4]. Stifel’s modest declines in money market balances suggest clients are shifting to higher-yielding alternatives, a trend that could pressure margins if not managed carefully. However, the firm’s focus on diversification and active portfolio management aligns with broader industry best practices, mitigating some of these risks [2].

For investors, Stifel’s performance in Q2-Q3 2025 offers a compelling case. Its asset and deposit growth, combined with a favorable analyst outlook, suggests the firm is well-positioned to outperform in a sector that has shown resilience. While caution is warranted, the current valuation and strategic adaptability make a “buy” signal increasingly attractive.

Source:
[1] Stifel Reports July 2025 Operating Data [https://finviz.com/news/152763/stifel-reports-july-2025-operating-data]
[2] Q3 2025 Market Update: Resilience, Recovery & What We'... [https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/q3-2025-market-update-resilience-recovery-what-mn0nc]
[3] Stifel Reports Second Quarter 2025 Results [https://www.morningstar.com/news/globe-newswire/9502772/stifel-reports-second-quarter-2025-results]
[4] Q3 2025 Credit Research Outlook Resilience amid risk [https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/insights/q3-2025-credit-research-outlook]