Stifel Canada's Q3 2025 Preview for Superior Plus: Navigating Earnings Volatility and Energy Sector Challenges

Stifel Canada's recent analysis of Superior Plus Corp. (TSE:SPB) underscores a mixed outlook for the energy services provider as it navigates a volatile market environment. While the firm has revised its Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) forecast downward, it maintains a cautiously optimistic stance for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. This analysis examines the near-term earnings momentum and competitive positioning of Superior Plus, drawing on conflicting analyst estimates and broader sector dynamics.

Earnings Momentum: A Tale of Two Forecasts

Stifel Canada analyst D. Young has projected a Q3 2025 EPS of ($0.08) for Superior Plus, a slight deterioration from the prior estimate of ($0.07), according to Stifel Canada. That forecast contrasts with an earlier MarketBeat alert showing a more severe loss of ($0.27) per share, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the company's short-term performance. The discrepancy may stem from evolving operational challenges, including a temporary plant shutdown in California and weaker propane volumes following a strong Q1 2025, as noted in Superior's Q2 2025 results.

Despite the Q3 headwinds, Stifel Canada anticipates a rebound in Q4 2025, forecasting EPS of $0.32, and a stronger full-year 2026 outlook at $0.73 EPS. These projections align with Superior Plus's strategic initiatives, such as its "Superior Delivers" transformation program, which aims to boost operational efficiency and EBITDA margins. Early results from this program, including improved pricing and route optimization, have already contributed to a $20 million annualized EBITDA uplift, according to an ETF Daily News note.

Market Positioning in a Competitive Energy Sector

Superior Plus operates in a highly competitive energy services landscape, facing rivals like Secure Energy Services (SES) and Raging River Exploration (RRX). While SES outperforms SPB in key profitability metrics-such as a 5.86% net margin versus SPB's 1.80%-according to MarketBeat's competitors page, Superior Plus is viewed more favorably by analysts, with a consensus target price of C$9.16 compared to SES's C$10.50. This suggests that investors are factoring in SPB's long-term growth potential, including its expanding Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) business and disciplined capital allocation strategy.

The company's CNG division, Certarus, has demonstrated resilience, contributing $27.4 million in Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025-a 0.7% year-over-year increase (reported in Superior's Q2 2025 results). This segment benefits from a growing fleet of mobile storage units (MSUs), which rose 14% in Q2 2025 to 869 units (reported in Superior's Q2 2025 results). However, SPB's reliance on propane and CNG exposes it to commodity price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions, as evidenced by the Q2 2025 EBITDA decline of $9.8 million (reported in Superior's Q2 2025 results).

Strategic Resilience and Shareholder Returns

Superior Plus has prioritized shareholder returns through its share repurchase program, buying back 3.2% of outstanding shares in Q2 2025 (reported in Superior's Q2 2025 results). This capital allocation strategy, combined with its focus on operational efficiency, positions the company to weather near-term volatility. Stifel Canada's FY2025 EPS estimate increase in July 2025, according to an American Banking News report, further signals confidence in SPB's ability to stabilize its earnings trajectory, despite conflicting short-term forecasts.

However, the company's beta of 0.212775-indicating lower volatility than the S&P 500-suggests that its stock may offer downside protection in a downturn (MarketBeat's competitors page). This contrasts with SES's beta of 0.97991, reflecting its closer alignment with broader market swings. For investors, this dynamic underscores the trade-off between SPB's defensive characteristics and SES's stronger near-term profitability.

Conclusion: Balancing Risks and Opportunities

Stifel Canada's Q3 2025 preview for Superior Plus reveals a company grappling with near-term earnings pressures but poised for recovery in 2026. While the conflicting EPS estimates highlight operational uncertainties, the firm's strategic initiatives and resilient CNG business provide a foundation for long-term growth. Investors should monitor SPB's ability to execute its transformation program and navigate sector-specific challenges, such as propane demand cycles and supply chain bottlenecks. For now, the stock appears to balance risk and reward, offering a compelling case for those with a medium-term horizon.

Historical backtesting of SPB's stock performance around earnings releases since 2022 reveals a nuanced pattern. In the first two weeks post-earnings, the stock underperformed the benchmark by -1.2% cumulative returns, with no statistical significance. However, by day 20, the trend reversed, showing a statistically significant positive excess return of +2.4% by day 30. The win rate for post-earnings momentum also improved from ~43% on day 1 to ~63% by day 29, suggesting a delayed positive drift. These findings imply that a patient long strategy-holding the stock for ~25–30 days after an earnings report-could historically capture this drift, while short-term positioning (<1 week) offered no edge (Historical Earnings-Event Backtest for Superior Plus (TSE:SPB), 2022–2025 (internal analysis)).