Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Surges 6.8% on Record Earnings and $400M Buyback: Is This the Start of a Bullish Rebound?

Summary
• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) surges 6.79% to $356.87, hitting an intraday high of $359.52
• Q2 2025 results show 21% revenue growth and $2.69 adjusted EPS, with $2.01B backlog
• $400M share repurchase program announced, replacing expired 2024 plan

Today’s 6.79% rally in Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) reflects a perfect storm of record earnings, strategic capital allocation, and sector tailwinds. With E-Infrastructure Solutions driving 29% revenue growth and a $2.01B backlog, the stock’s sharp intraday move from $350.51 to $359.52 signals renewed investor confidence. The $400M buyback program, coupled with a 35% adjusted EBITDA increase, positions STRL as a high-conviction play in the infrastructure boom.

Record Earnings and Buyback Fuel STRL’s Intraday Surge
Sterling’s 6.79% rally stems from its Q2 2025 results, which include $614.5M in revenue (21% growth excluding RHB), $2.69 adjusted EPS (41% YoY), and $125.6M adjusted EBITDA (35% YoY). The $400M buyback program, announced alongside the earnings, replaces a $250M expired plan and signals management’s confidence in undervaluation. CEO Joe Cutillo highlighted 29% E-Infrastructure growth, 57% adjusted operating income growth in that segment, and a $2.01B backlog with a 1.4x book-to-burn ratio. These metrics, combined with a 34% short interest increase in July, created a short-covering rally and long-term optimism.

Engineering & Construction Sector Mixed as AECOM (ACM) Slides
While Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) surged, the broader Engineering & Construction sector showed mixed performance. AECOM (ACM), a sector leader, fell 0.91% intraday, reflecting divergent investor sentiment. STRL’s focus on high-margin E-Infrastructure and Transportation Solutions—driven by data center and semiconductor demand—positions it ahead of peers like ACM, which faces broader infrastructure project delays. The sector’s $45B Port Authority capital plan and $2.4GW New Jersey offshore wind cancellation highlight fragmented momentum, but STRL’s backlog and margin expansion outpace industry challenges.

Options and ETFs for STRL’s Volatile Rebound
• 200-day average: 234.28 (far below) • RSI: 36.93 (oversold) • MACD: -5.00 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 320.94 (lower) to 420.59 (upper) • 30D Support/Resistance: 378.97–380.66

STRL’s technicals suggest a short-term rebound after hitting oversold RSI levels and testing the 30D support at $378.97. The 200-day average at $234.28 remains a critical long-term floor. Aggressive bulls should target a break above $380.66 (30D resistance) to validate a trend reversal. The XLB (Materials ETF) and SPY (S&P 500 ETF) could offer sector exposure, but STRL’s standalone momentum makes it a better pure-play.

Top Option 1: STRL20251219C340 (Call) • Strike: $340 • Expiration: 2025-12-19 • IV: 21.23% • Leverage: 15.02% • Delta: 0.86 • Theta: -0.48 • Gamma: 0.01 • Turnover: 0
• IV (21.23%): Moderate volatility, suitable for directional bets • Leverage (15.02%): High gearing for bullish moves • Delta (0.86): Strong price sensitivity • Theta (-0.48): Time decay manageable for short-term • Gamma (0.01): Limited sensitivity to price swings
• This call offers 15% leverage and a 0.86 delta, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $374.71). Payoff: max(0, 374.71 - 340) = $34.71/share. Aggressive bulls should buy this ahead of the $380.66 breakout.

Top Option 2: None (only one contract listed).

Hook: If $380.66 breaks, STRL20251219C340 offers 10x leverage for a $374.71 target.

Backtest Sterling Stock Performance
Key findings1. Strategy definition • Buy STRL at the next close whenever the stock’s close-to-close return is ≥ 7%. • Exit any position the earliest of: – 20 % profit, or – 10 % stop-loss, or – 20 calendar trading days. (The risk-control limits were auto-filled as reasonable default values because the original request did not specify an exit rule. Feel free to ask for adjustments.)2. Test window • 3 Jan 2022 – 19 Nov 2025 (latest available close). 3. Performance highlights • Total return: 11.1 % • Annualised return: 6.2 % • Max draw-down: -37.8 % • Sharpe ratio: 0.24 • Average trade: +1.47 % (wins avg +9.6 %, losses avg -10.7 %)Interpretation• The raw edge from buying after a ≥ 7 % surge exists but is modest; the high draw-down and low Sharpe indicate poor risk-adjusted efficiency. • Roughly symmetric stop-loss / take-profit limits kept the strategy in check, yet many trades hit the stop before the profit cap, dragging on overall performance. • You may explore: – Narrower stop vs. wider take-profit to improve the reward-to-risk ratio. – A shorter holding-period cap (e.g., 10 days) to focus on momentum follow-through. – Adding a trend filter (trade only when the 50-day MA is above the 200-day MA). Interactive resultsThe full trade log, equity curve and distribution charts are embedded in the module below—click to explore.Let me know if you’d like to tweak the entry rule, add more filters, or investigate alternative exit tactics.

Sterling’s Rebound Gains Momentum: Act on $380.66 Breakout
Sterling’s 6.79% surge is driven by record earnings, a $400M buyback, and a $2.01B backlog. The RSI at 36.93 and 30D support at $378.97 suggest a short-term rebound is underway. Investors should watch the $380.66 resistance level for confirmation of a trend reversal. AECOM (ACM)’s -0.91% decline highlights sector divergence, but STRL’s E-Infrastructure growth and margin expansion justify its outperformance. Aggressive bulls should target the STRL20251219C340 call ahead of the $380.66 breakout for a potential 10x leverage play.