Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis

• XLMJPY declined by 1.7% over 24 hours, closing at 56.47 Yen after forming a bearish engulfing pattern around 05:30 ET.
• RSI reached oversold territory below 30, while volume surged after 19:30 ET, suggesting short-term exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with price dropping below 56.30 Yen during a sharp selloff from 56.90 Yen.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the late ET hours, indicating increased uncertainty and potential reversal setups.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 56.44 and 56.28 are key for near-term support, with resistance above 56.74.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at 56.81 Yen on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 57.26 Yen, and closed at 56.47 Yen by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17. The 24-hour volume totaled 383,684 XLM, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥21,685,635. The pair experienced a bearish bias driven by bearish engulfing patterns and expanding volatility.

Structure & Formations

XLMJPY displayed a bearish engulfing pattern near the 56.90–56.89 level, confirming a reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment. A doji formed at 05:45 ET, indicating indecision among traders. Key support levels emerged at 56.42, 56.30, and 56.26 Yen, with 56.42 acting as a recent floor. Resistance levels are at 56.58 and 56.74 Yen, based on the prior day’s highs and consolidation zones. Price appears to be consolidating around 56.47 Yen, with potential for a test of the 56.30–56.26 support cluster.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed below key swing highs, suggesting a bearish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at 56.55 Yen, and the 20-period MA is at 56.49 Yen. The daily chart shows the 50-period and 200-period MAs forming a bearish death cross setup, reinforcing the bearish tone in the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has crossed into negative territory and is trending lower, with bearish divergence evident during the late ET hours. The RSI has dropped below 30, entering oversold territory, but has not triggered a strong bullish reversal yet. While a bounce is likely, the bearish momentum remains intact. The RSI and MACD have shown a short-term bottoming bias, but with a higher probability of continuation lower than reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions when the RSI crosses below 30 and the 15-minute MACD diverges bearishly with price. Stops could be placed above the nearest resistance, and targets could be aligned with the 56.26–56.30 support zone. The strategy could also include a long reversal bias when the RSI crosses back above 50 with strong volume confirmation, but given current conditions, a bearish approach appears more aligned with the market structure.