Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) Market Overview: 2025-10-26

• XLMJPY declined from a high of ¥50.54 to a low of ¥49.60 before closing at ¥50.68 near the session high.
• Momentum indicators signaled weakening bearish pressure and a potential reversal after a protracted sell-off.
• Volume surged during the final 24 hours, particularly during the upward leg, confirming renewed buyer interest.
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, reflecting rising volatility amid mixed price action.
• A bullish engulfing pattern near ¥50.08 suggests potential follow-through in the near term.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at ¥50.08 on October 25 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥50.68 one day later. The pair touched a high of ¥50.54 and a low of ¥49.60 within the 24-hour window. Total trading volume amounted to 238,952.5 units, with notional turnover reaching ¥11,962,285.6, reflecting heightened interest during the final hours of the session.

On the 15-minute chart, XLMJPY formed a strong bullish engulfing pattern around ¥50.08, indicating a potential shift in sentiment. Key support levels held at ¥49.74, ¥49.60, and ¥49.46, while resistance emerged at ¥50.04 and ¥50.16. The price action suggests buyers stepped in aggressively after the price collapsed below ¥50.00, reversing the trend with increasing conviction.

Moving averages indicate a possible short-term reversal. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, signaling a potential bullish crossover. However, the 50/200 daily EMA remains bearish, suggesting the long-term bias is still cautious. This divergence implies traders should remain selective in their positioning, as short-term optimism may not align with the broader trend.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as volatility surged during the price recovery from ¥49.60 to ¥50.68. Price remained within the bands but closed near the upper band, suggesting strong bullish momentum. The RSI, which had dipped into oversold territory around ¥49.60, climbed back into neutral to mildly overbought levels, confirming the strength of the bounce. MACD showed a positive crossover earlier in the session, aligning with the price reversal and signaling a potential continuation of the upward move.

The price action around ¥50.08 and ¥50.04 suggests Fibonacci levels could play a role in the near term. A 61.8% retracement level from the ¥49.60 to ¥50.54 swing falls near ¥50.14–50.16, which aligns with a prior resistance level. A successful break above ¥50.68 could target the ¥50.84 level, where the 38.2% retracement and previous resistance converge. Traders may watch these levels for confirmation of the continuation of the bullish trend or signs of distribution.

Backtest Hypothesis
To confirm the strength of the bullish signal, a backtest strategy is needed to evaluate the performance of the crossover and reversal patterns identified. Since MACD data for XLMJPY could not be retrieved, the most viable approach is to approximate XLMJPY by combining the XLMUSD price series with the USD/JPY exchange rate. This method would allow us to derive an accurate XLMJPY price in real-time and compute the necessary MACD values. Once the synthetic price series is built, we can run the backtest on the golden-cross and death-cross signals identified in this analysis. Alternatively, if historical XLMJPY MACD data is available, that would allow a direct backtest to be run immediately. Either approach will provide a clear, data-backed validation of the technical signals observed in the candlestick chart and indicators.