Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) Market Overview for 2025-10-05

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• XLMJPY opened at 57.35, reached 59.82, traded down to 57.90, and closed at 59.23 by 12:00 ET today.
• Price surged in the early hours, with volume peaking near 32,759.4 at 09:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase.
• RSI indicated overbought conditions near 70, but failed to confirm a breakout above 60.01, raising short-term correction risk.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 12-hour window, with Bollinger Bands widening from 58.0 to 60.1.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 05:00 ET, followed by a bearish hanging man at 10:45 ET, suggesting indecision.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at 57.35 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 59.82 before closing at 59.23 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. The pair traded between 57.90 and 59.82 during the 24-hour window. Total volume summed to approximately 314,214.9, with a notional turnover of about ¥17,763,918 (based on volume × average close).

Structure & Formations

XLMJPY exhibited a strong rally in the early hours, forming a large bullish engulfing candle at 05:00 ET after a consolidation phase. A subsequent bearish hanging man at 10:45 ET and a long upper shadow candle at 10:15 ET suggest short-term topping pressure. The price has tested key resistance levels at 59.20–59.30 multiple times, with mixed follow-through, while support appears to be consolidating near 58.80–58.90.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in favor of the bulls, forming a bullish golden cross at 07:00 ET. However, the 50-period line began to slope downward by 10:30 ET, indicating weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 200-period MA, supporting a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram expanded positively during the early hours but began to contract after 09:00 ET, signaling waning bullish momentum. RSI rose sharply into overbought territory (above 70) but failed to sustain the move, dipping below 65 by 10:45 ET. This suggests short-term profit-taking and a potential pullback toward 58.80–59.00.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply following the early morning breakout, with Bollinger Bands widening from a mid-range of 58.0–58.5 to 59.0–60.1 by 09:00 ET. Price remained near the upper band during the morning, but drifted to the middle band by midday, signaling a potential retracement toward the lower end of the range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to a high of 32,759.4 at 09:00 ET during the breakdown attempt, followed by a sharp drop-off after 10:00 ET. The divergence between price and volume suggests a lack of conviction in the rally. Notional turnover increased in line with price surges, with the largest spikes occurring during the 05:00–09:00 ET window.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the 15-minute swing (57.35 to 59.82) show key retracement levels at 58.87 (38.2%) and 58.43 (61.8%). The price pulled back to 58.89–58.90 during the afternoon, finding temporary support before rebounding. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level is near 59.45 and the 61.8% level at 58.12, suggesting a possible retracement target in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined focuses on using a combination of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, along with RSI and MACD, to identify potential breakout and reversal signals. The hypothesis is that a golden cross (20 MA above 50 MA), confirmed by a bullish MACD divergence and RSI above 60, may generate a high-probability buy entry. Conversely, a bearish divergence in MACD and RSI dipping below 40 after a strong rally may signal an exit or short entry. The backtesting results for this XLMJPY 15-minute data window showed mixed performance, with the golden cross at 07:00 ET yielding a modest gain, but the subsequent bearish reversal cues at 10:45 ET failing to hold as strong resistance. The strategy’s success may depend on tighter volatility conditions and stronger volume confirmation.