Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) 24-Hour Market Overview

Summary
• Price action showed a bearish shift after an early rally to 43.47.
• Key support tested around 42.34 with a 61.8% Fib retracement level nearby.
• High-volume periods occurred during retracements, hinting at distribution.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at 42.97 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 43.47 before closing at 42.34 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour total volume was 321,166.0 and turnover totaled 13,663,173.0 JPY.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern after an initial bullish push from 42.97 to 43.47. A key support zone developed around 42.34–42.43, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 42.34 acting as a potential pivot. A doji formed during the 08:30–09:00 ET timeframe, signaling indecision. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 16:00–17:00 ET, confirming a shift in momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line during a sharp sell-off, suggesting short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price closed below both the 50 and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 17:00 ET, while the histogram shrank after an initial surge, indicating weakening momentum. RSI bottomed at 28, signaling oversold territory, but failed to generate a strong bounce, suggesting exhaustion on the buy side. A bearish divergence formed between the RSI and price after the 05:45–06:00 ET timeframe, hinting at further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 14:00–15:30 ET rally, as price reached the upper band at 43.12. The 20-period Bollinger Bands then contracted as price moved back toward the lower band, indicating a potential consolidation period. Price has now settled near the lower band, suggesting a period of weak momentum and possible continuation lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price reversals, including the 17:00–17:15 ET and 22:30–22:45 ET timeframes, which coincided with sharp price swings. Turnover aligned with volume, confirming these moves. However, price failed to hold key levels despite high volume, indicating distribution pressure from institutional participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fib level at 42.34 was a key support target, and price bounced from this level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent bullish move is at 42.97, which may offer a potential short-term retest level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A strategy based on RSI oversold and overbought levels could have triggered a buy signal around 42.34, as RSI hit 28. However, the lack of follow-through buying and bearish divergence suggest that this may not have been a strong entry. Historical backtesting from 2022 shows that RSI-based strategies often face false signals and lagging indicators, especially in markets with high volatility and divergent macro factors. The Stellar/Yen pair appears to exhibit similar behavior, where RSI may not be sufficient as a standalone tool.