Stellar/Yen Market Overview

• XLMJPY surged 24.5% over the last 24 hours amid sustained bullish momentum and above-average volume.
• Key support held at ¥58.40 before a late-night breakout above ¥60.50 triggered a rally to ¥61.92.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the last 12 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening past 1.5 standard deviations.
• RSI reached overbought territory above 70, suggesting possible near-term correction.
• Volume spiked dramatically on the final upward wave, confirming strength but raising divergence risk.

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at ¥58.89 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at ¥61.59 by 12:00 ET today, hitting a high of ¥61.92 and a low of ¥58.40. The 24-hour trading volume amounted to 415,415.4 units, with a notional turnover of ¥24,617,595. The pair displayed a strong bullish bias, marked by a late-night breakout and a sharp daytime rally.

The price action formed a key ascending triangle formation in the last 6 hours of the 15-minute chart, with resistance clustering at ¥60.50–¥61.00 and support anchoring between ¥59.30–¥58.40. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at ¥59.30–¥60.16, followed by a higher high at ¥61.92 that confirmed a breakout. A doji at ¥60.99–¥61.01 in the early morning hinted at a possible pause in buying momentum.

Moving averages indicated a strong short-term trend. The 15-minute chart saw the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA, forming a “golden cross,” while on the daily chart, the 50-period MA was decisively above the 200-period MA, reinforcing the longer-term bullish bias. MACD showed a positive divergence with price in the last 12 hours, and RSI pushed into overbought territory above 70, suggesting caution for further gains. Bollinger Bands expanded to a width of 1.5 standard deviations, reflecting heightened volatility.

Price tested key Fibonacci levels from the ¥58.40 low to the ¥61.92 high, with the 61.8% retracement at ¥60.46 and the 38.2% at ¥60.94 showing notable activity. Volume spiked above average during the break of ¥60.50 and again near ¥61.80–61.92, confirming the strength of the rally. However, the final 15-minute candle showed a lower close and lower open than the preceding candle (¥61.83–61.59), hinting at a possible bearish reversal setup.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions at the close of a bullish engulfing candle when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, and exiting at a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with a stop-loss set at the recent swing low. This setup was visually confirmed by the price action on the last night’s move from ¥59.30–60.16 and again from ¥60.16–61.92, where volume and momentum aligned with trend confirmation.