Stellar (XLMUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-08-25

• Stellar (XLMUSDT) experienced a sharp intraday sell-off from $0.4211 to $0.3939, reversing most of the previous day’s gains.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed near $0.421, followed by a volatile breakdown below key support at $0.4057.
• Volume surged during the sell-off but failed to confirm sustained bearish momentum in the final 8 hours.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions before the decline, now showing bearish divergence with price.
• Price appears to be consolidating near a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent $0.421 high.

Market Overview

Stellar (XLMUSDT) opened at $0.4079 on 2025-08-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.4211, and closed at $0.3936 at 12:00 ET the next day. Total volume was 41.35 million XLM, with a notional turnover of $16.74 million.

The 24-hour period was marked by a sharp parabolic rise in the morning, driven by accumulation and strong bullish momentum, followed by a sharp breakdown in the late afternoon and overnight hours, suggesting profit-taking and bearish exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $0.421, followed by a long bearish candle at $0.4103–$0.4043. A key support level at $0.4057 was tested and broken, with a second test at $0.3993–$0.3968 indicating a potential short-term bottom. A doji formed near $0.4005, suggesting indecision ahead of the final drop to $0.3936.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed into a bearish alignment after 21:00 ET, confirming downward momentum. On the daily chart, XLMUSDT closed below the 50DMA and 100DMA, reinforcing bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory after 20:00 ET, with bearish divergence visible from 00:00 to 08:00. RSI peaked at 72 (overbought) before the sell-off and dropped to 26, indicating oversold conditions, though a reversal may require confirmation from volume and price action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sell-off, with price breaking below the lower band at $0.395 and $0.392. A recent contraction occurred between $0.409 and $0.410, which preceded the breakdown. Price is currently testing the lower band at $0.393–$0.394.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown, peaking at 14.7 million XLM at 19:45 ET, and again at 00:00 ET with 4.11 million XLM traded. However, the final 8-hour window saw reduced volume and turnover, suggesting a potential pause in selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level of the $0.3936–$0.4211 swing is at $0.395, currently being tested. A close above $0.4057 could trigger a short-term bounce, while a break below $0.388 could open a path to $0.380.

Stellar may find near-term support at $0.392–$0.393 and resistance at $0.4057–$0.408. Investors should watch for a breakout confirmation or a rejection from current levels before committing to directional trades. As always, market volatility remains a key risk.