Stellar (XLM) Surges 11% on Protocol 23 Upgrade Hype

Stellar (XLM) has recently experienced a significant surge, climbing over 11% in a single day. This breakout has shattered key resistance zones and reignited bullish sentiment across the altcoin market. The rally has pushed XLM from around $0.30 to nearly $0.40, a level not seen since early 2024. This surge is driven by renewed optimism around cross-border payment solutions and speculation surrounding institutional partnerships.

The recent surge in Stellar’s (XLM) price is being driven by mounting excitement surrounding the upcoming Protocol 23 upgrade. This highly anticipated update introduces Soroban, a smart contract platform that will transform Stellar from a basic payments-focused network into a full-featured smart contract ecosystem. This integration expands Stellar’s utility beyond cross-border transactions and remittances, enabling the development of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, tokenization, and more sophisticated use cases directly on-chain.

Investors are reacting to this shift in narrative. For years, Stellar has been pigeonholed as a transactional layer for moving money quickly and cheaply. With Protocol 23, that changes. The promise of programmability, flexible transaction types, and improved data storage means Stellar is positioning itself to compete in the fast-growing Web3 and DeFi sectors — a space previously out of reach for the project. This perceived leveling-up has renewed interest from both retail and institutional investors.

Adding to the momentum is the timing: the Mainnet vote on Protocol 23 is scheduled for August 14, 2025. As the upgrade draws closer, market participants are likely pricing in its significance, anticipating an influx of new developers, applications, and capital once Soroban goes live. In the crypto market, such fundamental shifts often drive speculative rallies, and this appears to be one. Technically, the breakout above $0.30 aligns with this narrative shift, suggesting that the rally is not purely chart-driven but fundamentally justified.

Stellar’s price is up because it’s on the verge of a major transformation. With smart contracts coming, the network is no longer just a payment rail — it’s becoming a programmable financial ecosystem. This shift is creating a surge in demand and bullish sentiment, with traders betting that Stellar's Protocol 23 upgrade could be the catalyst that finally repositions XLM as a major player in the next cycle.

From consolidation near the $0.25–$0.28 range, with price now trading at $0.379 and hitting an intraday high of $0.405. This rally has been so strong that it's blown past several key Fibonacci levels, including the 0.236 level at $0.306 and is hovering just below the 0.618 level near $0.395. What’s important here is the candle structure. Using Heikin Ashi, we see two large consecutive bullish candles with no lower shadows — this confirms dominant bullish momentum. In technical terms, this is a sign of trend continuation, not reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at a sky-high 87.08, clearly in the overbought zone. Historically, an RSI this high indicates a likely pullback — but in the context of a breakout rally, it can also mean we are in the early stages of a parabolic run. However, if we consider the RSI breakout from below 50 just a week ago to 87 today, that signals a sharp shift in market sentiment. RSI divergence is not yet visible, so price may continue upward before a correction sets in.

To estimate short-term targets, let’s use the recent rally move from $0.246 (swing low) to $0.405 (swing high), a gain of $0.159. Using Fibonacci extension, we can estimate next targets: 1.0 extension: $0.405, 1.272 extension: ≈ $0.445, 1.618 extension: ≈ $0.495. If momentum holds, XLM price could test $0.445–$0.495 in the next 7–14 days. That would represent another 17–30% upside from current levels. But there's also a need to manage downside risks. If a pullback happens: Immediate support: $0.345, Strong support: $0.306–$0.290 (Fibonacci 0.236 and breakout retest zone). If $0.29 fails, Stellar price may re-enter the old accumulation zone — but that seems unlikely with current momentum.

Stellar price current rally appears technically healthy — it's backed by volume, trend confirmation, and a clean breakout. However, RSI in overbought territory suggests short-term profit-taking is likely, especially around the $0.445–$0.495 range. For investors: Short-term traders may consider taking partial profits near $0.445, Mid-term holders could aim for a breakout above $0.50 if XLM consolidates above $0.38, New entries should wait for a dip near $0.34–$0.31 to manage risk better.

Yes — based on Fibonacci extension and bullish continuation patterns, XLM price has a real chance to reach $0.50 in the next 2–3 weeks, assuming Bitcoin stays stable and altcoins continue rallying. However, expect volatility and a likely retest of lower levels before that milestone is achieved.