Stellar (XLM) Price Hovers Near $0.30, Awaiting Breakout or Pullback

Stellar (XLM) has exhibited signs of bullish recovery over the past few weeks, but recent hesitation near critical resistance levels has raised questions about whether the price is preparing for a breakout or a short-term pullback. Analyzing the daily and hourly chart patterns provides insights into the potential future movements of XLM price.

The daily chart of XLM price shows a recovery from the sub-$0.25 range, where buyers reversed the prolonged downtrend. The price recently touched $0.31 but failed to hold above it, pulling back slightly to around $0.295. Key observations include resistance rejection near the 200-day SMA (~$0.319), indicating buyers are struggling to maintain momentum beyond that point. The 50-day SMA ($0.284) is inching closer to crossing the 100-day SMA ($0.265), which could trigger a golden cross, a bullish signal watched by long-term traders. Recent daily Heikin Ashi candles show smaller bodies and long wicks on both sides, indicating indecision among bulls and bears around the $0.30 zone. The 100-day SMA near $0.265 is acting as a strong base, and if the price revisits this area, it might be an opportunity for dip buyers.

Zooming into the hourly chart, Stellar price appears to be in a cooling-off phase after a strong rally earlier this week that took the price above $0.32. The price has since retraced and is currently hovering just below $0.30. Hourly insights include the 50-hour and 100-hour SMAs now positioned above the current price, acting as immediate resistance. XLM price needs to reclaim these levels for another upward leg. The pullback has found some support around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing low to swing high. This area (~$0.295) is key—a breakdown below this could open doors to $0.28. The price is consolidating in a tight range between $0.295 and $0.305, suggesting a breakout is likely soon, either back toward $0.32 or down to retest the $0.285–$0.275 zone.

A recovery depends on two technical developments: sustaining above $0.295, which is the pivot level in both daily and hourly views. If XLM price closes above this consistently, a move back to $0.32 and then $0.35 is possible. Volume confirmation is also crucial, as current volume on rallies has been low, so watch for a volume spike if the price breaks past $0.31 again.

If XLM price maintains its structure and breaks past the 200-day SMA resistance at $0.319, the next immediate targets are $0.35, which is a psychological and Fibonacci extension resistance, and $0.41, the next major resistance from December 2024 levels. However, failure to reclaim $0.31 could lead to another retest of the $0.265 support zone, where the uptrend could either get revived or fail completely.

Stellar price is currently at a make-or-break level. While long-term indicators are turning optimistic, the short-term charts warn of fatigue and consolidation. If the broader market supports, XLM price could turn bullish quickly. For now, watch $0.295 and $0.31 closely—they hold the key to the next major move.