Stellar (XLM) as a Long-Term Value Play in Cross-Border Payments: Assessing Realistic Growth Potential and Market Cap Expansion by 2027

The cross-border payments market is undergoing a transformative phase, driven by the rise of digital infrastructure and the demand for faster, cheaper international transactions. Stellar (XLM), a blockchain platform designed for cross-border remittances and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this shift. This analysis evaluates XLM's potential as a long-term value play, focusing on its alignment with market trends, institutional adoption, and projected market cap expansion by 2027.

The Cross-Border Payments Market: A $315 Billion Opportunity

The global cross-border payments market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.24%, reaching $315.26 billion by 2030. Key drivers include the rise of B2B e-commerce in Asia, the adoption of ISO 20022 messaging standards in EU payment hubs, and the increasing reliance on digital payment methods. By 2027, the market is expected to handle over $250 trillion in annual flows, with total global cross-border payment volumes growing at a 9% CAGR. This expansion underscores the critical role of blockchain-based solutions like Stellar in reducing friction and costs for international transactions.

Stellar's Fundamentals: Partnerships, Technology, and Institutional Adoption

Stellar's value proposition lies in its ability to facilitate fast, low-cost cross-border transactions (3–5 seconds, $0.000508 average fee) and its strategic partnerships with financial institutions. Collaborations with IBM, Mastercard, and MoneyGram have cemented XLM's role in remittance corridors and institutional use cases, according to market analysis. For instance, IBM's World Wire platform leverages Stellar to enable real-time cross-border payments for banks, while MoneyGram uses the network to process remittances in emerging markets, as reported by VentureBurn.

The platform's recent upgrades, including Soroban smart contracts and RWA tokenization, further enhance its utility. By 2025, Stellar had tokenized over $400 billion in real-world assets, with $4 billion in RWA payments processed during the same period. These developments position XLM as a bridge between traditional finance and decentralized infrastructure, attracting institutional investors and enterprises.

Transaction Volume and Market Share: Gaining Traction

Stellar's transaction volume has surged in 2025, with the network processing $1.5 billion in remittance transactions in Q1 2025, a 45% increase from Q4 2024. By Q2 2025, daily transaction counts had risen by 100%, and the network's 24-hour trading volume reached $329 million, according to Gate's analysis. While exact market share percentages remain undisclosed, Stellar's transaction throughput (1,000 TPS) and institutional partnerships suggest it holds a significant but undefined share of the cross-border payments market, as noted by market observers.

Looking ahead, analysts project XLM's transaction volume to grow in tandem with the broader market. By 2027, the platform could capture a double-digit percentage of cross-border payment flows, driven by its cost efficiency and expanding ecosystem.

Price Projections and Market Cap Potential

Price forecasts for XLM vary, but most models point to a bullish trajectory. Conservative estimates suggest a price range of $0.38–$0.58 in 2027, while optimistic scenarios project $1.00–$2.00 by 2030, according to market projections. These projections are supported by Stellar's growing transaction volume, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic tailwinds, such as accommodative Federal Reserve policies and risk-on sentiment, as cited by CoinLedger.

A key factor in XLM's market cap expansion is its network utility. With over 500 anchors across 50+ countries and partnerships with fintech platforms like Coins.ph and Mercado Bitcoin, Stellar is scaling its infrastructure in high-volume remittance markets, according to industry reports. If XLM's price reaches $0.50 by 2027, its market cap could surpass $15 billion, assuming a token supply of 50 billion, as estimated by market analysis.

Risks and Challenges

Despite its strengths, XLM faces headwinds. Regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the U.S. and EU, could delay adoption or force compliance costs. Competition from rivals like Ripple's XRP and Ethereum's layer-2 solutions also poses a threat, though Stellar's focus on low-cost, high-speed transactions gives it an edge in niche markets, according to industry analysis. Additionally, macroeconomic volatility-such as a Fed tightening cycle-could dampen investor sentiment and price growth, as reported in financial analysis.

Conclusion: A Compelling Long-Term Play

Stellar's alignment with the $315 billion cross-border payments market, combined with its institutional partnerships and technological upgrades, makes it a compelling long-term value play. While price projections vary, the platform's fundamentals suggest a realistic path to $0.50–$1.00 by 2027, with market cap expansion contingent on sustained adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Investors should monitor network metrics (e.g., transaction volume, RWA usage) and regulatory developments to gauge XLM's trajectory.