Stellar (XLM) Lags Bitcoin with 2.8% Gain, Faces Critical May
2min read Stellar (XLM) enters May 2025 in a fragile position, underperforming Bitcoin and other altcoins in price action. Despite following Bitcoin’s general trajectory, XLM has failed to capture the same upside, while still participating fully in market corrections. Volume has also collapsed from early-year highs, highlighting a drop in market interest and liquidity. With price sitting just above a key support and a potential death cross on the horizon, stellar faces a critical month that could define its near-term trend.
Over the past month, Stellar has been closely following Bitcoin’s trajectory but with significantly weaker upside performance. While Bitcoin has climbed over 14%, XLM has managed only a 2.8% gain, falling behind Bitcoin and other altcoins like Hedera, which have shown stronger bullish reactions. This muted upside signals a lack of conviction among traders and raises questions about Stellar’s momentum in the current market cycle. What’s more concerning is that XLM is still behaving like a typical altcoin during corrections—dropping harder than Bitcoin when the market pulls back. Normally, altcoins are expected to amplify Bitcoin’s movements both ways: outperforming during rallies and underperforming in downturns. Stellar, however, only shows downside volatility without the upside benefit. This imbalance makes the token vulnerable, signaling weaker market confidence and potentially limiting its appeal in a risk-on environment.
Stellar has seen a noticeable drop in trading volume over the last 30 days, with activity peaking at just $311 million on April 23. This is well below previous highs—$480 million on April 7 and $930 million on March 3—showing a clear downtrend in market participation. Declining volume often signals weakening interest from traders and can limit price momentum, especially in a token that already underperforms on the upside. More importantly, XLM’s current volume levels pale compared to earlier this year’s activity. Daily volume frequently surpassed $1 billion in January and February, even reaching above $2 billion. That level of liquidity helped fuel stronger price action and volatility. With current figures sitting at a fraction of those peaks, Stellar faces a market backdrop that lacks energy and conviction—potentially capping any meaningful rallies in the near term.
Stellar is hovering just above a key support level at $0.26, a zone that could determine its next major move. The EMA lines are tightening, and a potential death cross may be forming where short-term EMAs cross below long-term ones. If the $0.26 support is lost and the death cross confirms, XLM could slide further toward $0.239 and even $0.20, signaling a deeper bearish shift. Conversely, bullish momentum could return if Stellar price manages to bounce and break through the $0.297 resistance. Moving past that level could open the door to $0.349 and $0.375, with further upside potential toward $0.44 and even $0.495 if volume and sentiment improve.
In summary, Stellar (XLM) is facing a critical juncture in May 2025. The token's underperformance relative to Bitcoin, coupled with declining trading volume and a potential death cross, suggests a fragile market position. The key support level at $0.26 will be crucial in determining the near-term trend. If Stellar can break through resistance levels, there is potential for significant upside. However, the current market conditions indicate a lack of conviction and liquidity, which could limit Stellar's ability to capitalize on any bullish momentum.
