Stellar (XLM)’s 288% Rally: Is $1 a Realistic Target in 2025?

Stellar (XLM) has surged 288% in 2025, driven by a confluence of fundamental and market-driven catalysts. With the token trading near $0.36 as of early September, the question on investors’ minds is whether XLM can break through key resistance levels and reach $1 by year-end. This analysis explores the forces propelling XLM’s rally and evaluates the feasibility of a $1 target in 2025.

Fundamental Catalysts: Protocol 23 and Real-World Adoption

Stellar’s Protocol 23 (Whisk), activated on September 3, 2025, is a game-changer. By enabling parallel transaction processing, the upgrade has boosted network throughput to 5,000 transactions per second (TPS) and slashed smart contract costs [1]. This scalability leap positions Stellar to attract DeFi projects and enterprises seeking efficient cross-border payment solutions. For instance, the Stellar Development Foundation’s partnership with Archax has tokenized a $26 billion money market fund, tapping into a RWA market projected to hit $1 trillion by 2030 [1]. Meanwhile, WisdomTree’s $99 billion deployment via Stellar underscores growing institutional demand for XLM as a settlement layer [1].

Real-world adoption is another critical driver. In Q2 2025, Stellar processed $4 billion in RWA transactions, including Franklin Templeton’s tokenization of U.S. Treasuries [2]. These developments validate XLM’s utility beyond speculative trading, creating a flywheel effect where increased adoption drives demand for the token.

Market-Driven Catalysts: Technical Momentum and Institutional Sentiment

Technically, XLM is in a pivotal phase. The RSI at 39.16 indicates oversold conditions, while the MACD shows a bearish crossover at -0.014 [3]. However, a bullish engulfing pattern forming around the $0.44 support level suggests potential upward momentum [4]. If XLM breaks above $0.46 resistance, it could target $0.64 by month-end, aligning with historical September trends where the token has averaged a 3.08% gain during this period [2].

Institutional sentiment is equally compelling. PayPal’s integration of its PYUSD stablecoin onto Stellar triggered a 5% price spike, signaling renewed confidence in the network’s infrastructure [2]. Meanwhile, Stellar’s $543 million total value locked (TVL)—driven by tokenized Treasuries and cross-border payments—highlights its growing role in institutional finance [2].

Challenges and Risks

Despite the bullish case, risks persist. XLM’s current price near $0.36 is vulnerable to a breakdown below the $0.34 support level, which could trigger a retest of the $0.31 200-day SMA [3]. Additionally, muted derivatives interest—Open Interest (OI) remains at $310 million, far below July’s peak—suggests limited speculative fervor [1]. Broader crypto market volatility and Bitcoin dominance also pose headwinds, as altcoins often underperform during bearish Bitcoin cycles.

Conclusion: A $1 Target Is Plausible, But Conditions Must Align

For XLM to reach $1 by 2025, three conditions must align:
1. Successful adoption of Protocol 23, driving DeFi and RWA growth.
2. Sustained institutional adoption, particularly in cross-border settlements.
3. A breakout above $0.45 resistance, supported by rising buying interest.

While the fundamentals are robust, technical execution remains critical. If XLM holds above $0.34 and breaks through $0.46, a rally to $0.64—and eventually $1—is plausible. However, traders should remain cautious, as overbought conditions and macroeconomic shifts could delay this timeline.

In the long term, Stellar’s focus on real-world utility and institutional partnerships positions it as a strong contender for a multi-year rally. For now, the $1 target is not just a dream—it’s a realistic possibility if the market continues to reward innovation and adoption.

**Source:[1] Stellar Price Forecast: Whisk upgrade faces muted interest [https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1091521-20250903][2] Stellar (XLM) Surges Amid Protocol 23 Upgrade and Major Partnerships [https://blockchain.news/news/20250718-stellar-xlm-surges-amid-protocol-23-upgrade-and-major-partnerships-whats-next][3] Stellar Price Forecast: Whisk upgrade faces muted interest [https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1091521-20250903][4] XLM/USD — Stellar to USD Price Chart [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/XLMUSD/]