Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) Market Overview

• XLMUSDT tested key resistance at 0.3900, failed to hold, and declined to 0.3810.
• Volume spiked during the breakout attempt but faded during the pullback.
• RSI showed bearish divergence near 60, hinting at waning bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Band contraction observed in early hours, followed by price expansion.
• Fibonacci 38.2% level at 0.3846 served as a short-term support, temporarily halting the decline.

Market Summary

Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at 0.3838 on 2025-10-08 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 0.3919 before closing at 0.3830 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period recorded a high of 0.3919 and a low of 0.3795, with a total traded volume of 35,097,046.0 XLM and a notional turnover of $12,890,885.58 (assuming XLM price ~ $0.367 average).

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart displayed a classic bearish reversal pattern from the 0.3900–0.3919 resistance zone. A large bearish engulfing candle formed during the 2025-10-08 18:00 to 18:30 window, signaling rejection of higher levels. A bullish harami developed around 0.3821–0.3825 on the 19:45–20:00 window, indicating a brief pause in the downward trend, but it failed to produce a sustained rebound. Key support levels to watch moving forward include 0.3810 and 0.3795, both of which are critical psychological and Fibonacci retracement levels.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly as price dropped below key averages after 19:30 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period SMA are in a bearish crossover, suggesting a short-term bearish bias. The 100-period SMA at 0.3854 sits above the 50-period SMA, forming a bearish divergence in the short term.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed bearishly below the signal line after 19:45, aligning with the bearish price action and volume. The histogram showed a consistent decline in momentum throughout the session. RSI reached a peak of 62.14 at 18:00 and dropped to 38.45 by 05:00, entering neutral territory. A bearish divergence was observed in the RSI during the late-night decline, suggesting further downward potential unless bullish volume accompanies a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be based on a combination of the 50 EMA and RSI divergence. A short entry could be triggered when price breaks below the 50 EMA and RSI forms bearish divergence, confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle. A stop-loss could be placed above the 20 EMA or the most recent swing high. A target could be set at the 0.3780–0.3770 Fibonacci level or 1.618 extension of the recent leg down. This approach could be tested on multiple cycles and refined by incorporating volume spikes as confirmation filters.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a narrow contraction between 23:00 and 00:30, indicating low volatility before a sharp break lower. Price then expanded below the lower band, reaching the 0.3810–0.3795 range. This breakout from the contraction suggests a potential continuation of the downward trend. A rebound above the upper band in the coming session would be a strong bullish signal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout attempt above 0.3900 but declined during the subsequent pullback. This divergence between price and volume suggests weakening bullish conviction. Turnover mirrored volume patterns and declined after 00:30, indicating reduced interest in the short-term trend. A rebound with a surge in volume would be necessary for a credible reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 38.2% retracement of the 0.3795–0.3919 swing is at 0.3846, which temporarily supported price. The 61.8% level at 0.3823 also acted as a short-term floor, with price briefly finding support before continuing lower. The 1.618 extension of the same move is at 0.3773, offering a potential target should the current trend continue.

Forward-Looking View and Risk

While XLMUSDT has shown bearish momentum with key resistance levels broken and bearish divergences in RSI and MACD, a short-term rebound could be expected if buyers step in at the 0.3810–0.3823 level with increased volume. However, a breakdown below 0.3795 could confirm a deeper decline. Investors should monitor the 50 EMA and volume action for potential reversal signs. As always, market conditions can shift rapidly—position sizing and risk management remain key.