Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) Market Overview

• XLM/USDT declined to a 24-hour low of $0.3862, reversing from a high of $0.4130.
• The RSI hit oversold territory (<30), signaling potential near-term rebound. • Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Bands widening after a contraction. • Volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum. • Price is testing the 0.386–0.388 support cluster, with a possible bounce expected.

Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at **$0.4115** on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET, reached a high of **$0.4130**, and closed the 24-hour period at **$0.3866** on 2025-10-07 12:00 ET. Total **volume** was **60.6 million XLM**, and **notional turnover** amounted to **$24.7 million**, reflecting heightened selling pressure during the late ET hours. The pair experienced a bearish bias, driven by a late-night breakdown below key support.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a series of bearish inside bars and engulfing candles during the last 8 hours of the period, especially between 02:00–06:00 ET. A key support cluster was identified around $0.386–0.388, with two bearish pinbars forming as the price approached this level. A potential bullish reversal is being watched, especially given the oversold RSI. Above, the $0.402–0.404 zone acts as immediate resistance, followed by $0.409–0.411, where multiple 15-minute candles failed to close above.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are in a bearish alignment, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA (death cross) late in the session. The 50EMA and 200SMA on the daily chart remain bearish, with price well below the 50EMA. This alignment suggests continued bearish momentum unless the price closes above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart for multiple periods.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line on the 15-minute chart turned negative at the close, confirming the bearish breakout. The histogram shows a divergence in momentum, with a narrowing bearish trend that could signal a short-term reversal. The RSI hit a 14-period low of 27, indicating oversold conditions and increasing the probability of a short-term bounce, although a sustained break below $0.385 would signal further weakness.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the Bollinger Bands widened after a period of contraction earlier in the session. The 20-period lower band currently sits at $0.385, with price closing just above it. This suggests a high probability of either a bounce or a continuation of the downward trend. A retest of the lower band could confirm the current bearish sentiment or trigger a short-covering rally.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the late ET selloff, peaking at 2.7 million XLM around 14:15–14:45 ET, coinciding with the breakdown of key support. Notional turnover also increased sharply during this period, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. Price and turnover are aligned, suggesting the move is confirmed rather than a false breakout. A similar spike in volume could be expected if a breakout above $0.402 occurs.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.4130 to $0.3862 places key levels at 38.2% ($0.4013) and 61.8% ($0.3934). Price is currently near the 61.8% level, suggesting a high probability of consolidation or reversal in this area. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader downtrend from $0.4130 to $0.3862 is around $0.3999, which could act as a near-term target for buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and oversold RSI levels, a backtest could be constructed using a mean-reversion strategy. The hypothesis would enter longs when the 15-minute RSI falls below 30 and the price closes above the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss placed at the recent swing low. This setup would aim to capture a short-term rebound in a larger bearish trend, capitalizing on overextended bear moves. The 50SMA could serve as a dynamic exit target on the 15-minute chart, providing a clear trailing stop or take-profit reference.