Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-18

• Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.3812 to $0.4023, with a 15-minute close near $0.4009
• Price showed a bullish bias after breaking above the prior high of $0.3995, supported by rising volume and RSI
• Volatility increased mid-day, with Bollinger Bands widening, suggesting higher potential for directional moves
• MACD showed bullish crossover with positive histogram expansion, aligning with the uptrend

Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at $0.3852 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.4023 and a low of $0.3812, closing at $0.4009 by 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume amounted to 55,148,696.0 XLM, while notional turnover stood at $17,124,911 (calculated using weighted close prices and volume). The price action showed a clear bullish tilt, supported by increasing momentum and divergence in volume.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bullish continuation pattern following a key breakout above a prior high of $0.3995, now acting as a dynamic support. A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed around 09:00 ET as price moved from $0.3979 to $0.4002, suggesting a shift in sentiment. A minor bearish divergence appeared at the close, though it lacks confirmation. Key support levels are now at $0.3975, $0.3952, and $0.3932, while resistance appears at $0.4023, $0.4046, and $0.4070.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line, signaling a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is rising above the 100- and 200-period lines, supporting a medium-term bullish outlook. The price is currently trading above all key moving averages, reinforcing its strength in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart is positive and trending upward, with the histogram expanding, indicating growing bullish momentum. RSI stands at 65, slightly above the overbought threshold of 60 but not yet extreme, suggesting continued strength could push further toward $0.4050. However, a move above 70 would indicate overbought conditions and potential for a correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has increased over the past 6 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening from a contraction earlier in the day. Price is currently trading near the upper band, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish trend. A sustained break above the upper band could trigger a momentum push, but a reversal into the lower band would suggest a correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has been increasing throughout the day, with notable spikes at 09:00 ET and 15:45 ET. The largest 15-minute volume spike occurred at 15:45 ET, where price surged from $0.399 to $0.4015 on 2.2 million XLM traded. Notional turnover also increased during this period, aligning with price and confirming the bullish move. No major volume divergences were observed, supporting the integrity of the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from $0.3952 to $0.4023, the 38.2% level sits at $0.3992 and the 61.8% level at $0.4003—both near the current price of $0.4009. A further move could see price test the 78.6% level at $0.4018. On the daily chart, key retracement levels from the recent swing low of $0.3812 to the high of $0.4023 include the 38.2% at $0.3923 and 61.8% at $0.3965—both potential support targets if the rally stalls.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on the 15-minute chart when the price closes above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and increasing volume. A stop-loss could be placed below the most recent swing low, while a target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension or the next key resistance level. Given today’s setup, such a strategy would have entered a long position around 09:00 ET with favorable odds based on trend strength, volume confirmation, and momentum indicators.