Stellar/Tether (XLM/USDT) Market Overview: September 26, 2025

• XLM/USDT declines from $0.3618 to $0.3494 amid increased bearish pressure and volume surges.
• Key support tested at $0.3480 with a rebound attempt seen around 04:30–06:00 ET.
• Volatility expands significantly in the 18–22:00 ET window, with over $11M notional turnover.
• RSI shows oversold conditions but lacks bullish follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands widen during the drop, with price near the lower band most of the session.

24-Hour Summary

At 12:00 ET on September 25, 2025, XLM/USDT opened at $0.3618. Over the following 24 hours, the pair declined to a low of $0.3458 before closing at $0.3494 at 12:00 ET on September 26. The price range reflected bearish momentum, with total volume reaching 114,305,730 XLM and a notional turnover of approximately $39.7M. The session saw multiple consolidation attempts but failed to recover above the $0.3530 resistance level.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish flag pattern after the initial drop from $0.3618 to $0.3503 between 17:00 and 18:30 ET. A double-bottom structure emerged at $0.3480–0.3490 from 23:45 to 01:00 ET, with a potential bullish reversal attempt. A long lower wick appeared around 05:30–05:45 ET, hinting at a short-term bounce. However, no strong bullish continuation followed, and price remained near the lower Bollinger Band most of the session, indicating bearish dominance.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (SMA) dipped below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA is likely above the 200-period MA, suggesting a continuation of the longer-term bearish trend. The RSI reached oversold levels below 30 during the session but failed to show a strong rebound. Meanwhile, the MACD crossed into negative territory around 17:00–17:30 ET and stayed bearish for most of the session.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 18:00–22:00 ET window, coinciding with the sharp drop to $0.3458. Price remained near the lower band for extended periods, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. A narrow band contraction was observed briefly between 02:00–03:00 ET, suggesting a potential reversal attempt but failing to gain traction.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume spike occurred between 23:45 and 00:15 ET, with a large notional turnover of $11.2M during the $0.3499 to $0.3527 bounce. A divergence appeared between volume and price during the 04:00–06:00 ET consolidation phase: volume decreased while price moved sideways, hinting at weaker conviction in the recovery attempt. The largest single candle in terms of notional turnover was a 15-minute candle at 23:45 ET with $11.2M, confirming a significant bearish push.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing high of $0.3618 and the low of $0.3458, the 61.8% retracement level is at approximately $0.3535. This level was tested multiple times and acted as a minor resistance. The 38.2% retracement at $0.3570 also saw some rejection, suggesting that bulls may find initial support at these levels. On a daily scale, the 50% retracement of the recent monthly move could provide a longer-term reference for potential bullish attempts.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price breaks below the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart and remains below for three consecutive candles, while the RSI is above 50 and the MACD histogram turns negative. A stop-loss is placed at the highest high of the last 10 candles, and a take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. Given today’s price action, the strategy would have triggered a short entry at ~0.3503 and exited at ~0.3494, capturing a modest profit with a controlled risk profile. This aligns with the observed bearish structure and momentum indicators, suggesting that the strategy could be robust in similar market conditions.