Stellar/Tether Market Overview: XLMUSDT

• Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at $0.4065 and closed at $0.3888, declining amid rising bearish momentum.
• Price tested key support levels at $0.4022 and $0.3974, with the 15-minute chart showing bearish engulfing and long lower wicks.
• Volatility expanded during the session, as Bollinger Bands widened and the RSI dipped into oversold territory.
• Notional turnover increased sharply after 15:00 ET, while volume declined late in the session.

Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at $0.4065 on October 3, 2025, and closed at $0.3888 as of 12:00 ET on October 4. The pair reached a high of $0.4136 and a low of $0.3892 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume was approximately 31,833,275.0, with a notional turnover of $12,123,688.89, calculated using the average close price.

The price action displayed bearish dominance, particularly after 15:00 ET, when a sharp decline pushed XLMUSDT to a 24-hour low. On the 15-minute chart, the price formed bearish engulfing patterns at key resistance levels, including $0.4085 and $0.4113. Long lower wicks and bearish pin bars were observed around $0.4065, suggesting rejection of bullish attempts. A notable doji formed at $0.4035, indicating indecision and potential exhaustion of the current move.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified at $0.4022, $0.3974, and $0.3943, with the latter acting as a critical floor if the bearish trend persists. Resistance levels held at $0.4085, $0.4113, and $0.4136, with price failing to retest the upper end of the range after 17:00 ET. The formation of multiple bearish engulfing patterns and long lower wicks suggests strong selling pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed below the 100- and 200-period lines, reinforcing the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence, with a bearish crossover and declining histogram bars. The RSI dipped into oversold territory around $0.3911, but no immediate reversal was confirmed, as the price continued to fall after the RSI dip.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 15:00 ET, with the price dropping well below the lower band. This expansion indicated a period of high volatility and potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Notional turnover spiked after 15:00 ET as the price dropped below $0.4006. While volume remained moderate during this phase, the divergence between volume and price suggests that large institutional players may have been distributing the asset.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent high of $0.4136 to the low of $0.3892 was at $0.3991, which was tested and failed. A retest of the 38.2% level at $0.4057 could trigger renewed bearish pressure if not held.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be based on key bearish patterns identified in this session—particularly the bearish engulfing and long lower wicks—and a reversal above the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart as a possible trigger for a short position. The RSI entering oversold territory without a clear reversal could also serve as a signal to maintain the bearish bias. To refine the strategy, a stop-loss could be placed just above the most recent 15-minute high, with a target at the next key support level. This approach would aim to capture short-term declines in a volatile but trending environment.