Stellar/Tether Market Overview: Downtrend Consolidates, Volatility Rises

• XLM/USDT fell 3.3% over the last 24 hours, closing below key support levels.
• Price action showed bearish momentum with volume confirming the downward move.
• Volatility expanded in the latter half of the period, signaling possible continuation or reversal.
• MACD and RSI both indicated bearish momentum and oversold territory near 0.3885.
• A breakdown of the 0.4021-0.4039 resistance suggests a test of 0.3850–0.3880 is likely.

Stellar/Tether (XLM/USDT) opened at $0.4018 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.4040, touched a low of $0.3850, and closed at $0.3883 as of 2025-09-19 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 78.9 million XLM, with a notional turnover of $30.2 million. The pair showed extended bearish pressure, especially after midday.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours formed a bearish flag pattern within a descending triangle formation. Key support levels at 0.4001 and 0.3981 were sequentially broken, with a final breakdown occurring below 0.3880. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.4024–0.4037, followed by a long lower shadow at 0.3963–0.3985. These patterns suggest exhaustion in the short-term bounce and potential continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages have been bearishly aligned since the breakdown at 0.4021. Price closed well below both, reinforcing short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages are trending lower, indicating a medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover, and the histogram showed a deepening bearish divergence. RSI reached oversold territory (below 30) in the early hours of 2025-09-19, signaling potential for a bounce but not necessarily a reversal. The RSI histogram showed a bearish divergence with price, suggesting a continuation of the decline is more likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 12 hours, with price moving from the middle band to near the lower band. This suggests that a mean-reversion bounce may be possible, but the strength of the bearish move suggests the price could remain near or below the lower band for a time.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged after 19:00 ET, especially during the breakdown phase between 0.3963 and 0.3954. Notional turnover mirrored volume closely, with confirmation of the breakdown. Divergence was observed during the early hours of 2025-09-19, where price attempted a small bounce without a corresponding increase in volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level of the recent 0.4039–0.3850 move is now at 0.3944, with the 50% level at 0.3947. Price remains well below this, suggesting further support testing may occur at 0.3880 and 0.3850.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on the confirmation of a breakdown below key support levels, such as 0.4001 or 0.3981, with a stop above the nearest resistance and a target at the 0.3850–0.3880 range. This approach leverages bearish engulfing patterns and volume confirmation. Given the recent breakdown and the bearish momentum in MACD and RSI, the 24-hour time frame offers a viable entry window for such a strategy.