Stellar's $0.38 Support Becomes Battleground for XLM's Next Move

The Stellar network (XLM) appears to be in a pivotal phase as its price holds above the $0.38 support level, raising questions about a potential rebound in the short term. Recent market data indicates that Stellar's price has demonstrated resilience, particularly as the coin's trading volume increased by 5% in the last 24 hours, reaching $248.96 million. This increase suggests rising market activity and investor interest. Stellar's price is currently trading at a significant discount to its all-time high, having fallen by 56% since its peak. However, with a market capitalization of $105.36 billion and a fully diluted valuation of $165.41 billion, XLM remains among the top-20 cryptocurrencies by market cap on CoinGecko.

The Stellar Development Foundation (SDF) has been actively working to enhance the network's scalability and throughput. In 2025, one of the SDF's key objectives is to increase the theoretical transaction capacity of Stellar Core to 5,000 transactions per second (TPS). This initiative is part of the broader plan to support real-world use cases and meet the evolving demands of the Stellar ecosystem. The parallelization of Stellar Core, as described in recent SDF announcements, marks the first step toward achieving this 5,000 TPS target. These improvements are expected to enhance the network's appeal for developers and institutional users, especially as the ecosystem continues to expand with major payments firms reportedly set to join the Stellar network in the coming weeks.

Stellar's Total Value Locked (TVL) has grown ninefold over the past year, significantly outpacing the broader crypto market’s twofold growth. This robust TVL performance highlights the growing adoption of Stellar-based applications, particularly in the DeFi and cross-border payments sectors. The Stellar network is also expanding its smart contract capabilities through the Soroban platform, which aims to provide a developer-friendly, Rust-based environment for building decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. These developments are expected to further solidify Stellar's role as a scalable and interoperable blockchain solution for global financial systems.

The price stability at the $0.38 level has sparked speculation among analysts and investors about a possible bullish reversal. Technical analysis suggests that if Stellar can maintain this support level without slipping below it, the next resistance zone lies between $0.41 and $0.45. Should the price successfully break through this upper range, it could trigger broader investor sentiment and attract further capital inflows into the XLM token. Analysts have pointed to the increasing number of XLM-based projects and partnerships, including collaborations with entities such as UNHCR and MoneyGram, as potential catalysts for a sustained price recovery.

Looking ahead, the upcoming Protocol 23 upgrade, codenamed “Whisk,” is expected to introduce improvements in parallel processing and overall network performance. This upgrade is part of Stellar’s broader strategy to enhance developer experience and throughput. As institutional and enterprise adoption continues to grow, Stellar’s ability to maintain a stable and scalable infrastructure will be crucial in determining whether XLM can sustain a long-term upward trajectory. With the market currently showing signs of stability at key support levels, the Stellar network appears to be in a strategic position to capitalize on the ongoing expansion of its ecosystem and infrastructure capabilities.