STEEMUSDT Market Overview: Bearish Divergence and Oversold RSI Signal Caution

• Steem/Tether (STEEMUSDT) closed near the session low, reflecting bearish pressure despite an early morning rebound.
• Price action formed multiple bearish engulfing and shooting star patterns late in the session, signaling exhaustion in the rally.
• Volatility remained compressed throughout the day, with Bollinger Bands narrowing, suggesting a potential breakout ahead.
• Turnover surged during the late evening hours, aligning with sharp price declines, indicating increased bearish activity.
• RSI entered oversold territory, raising the possibility of a near-term rebound but not necessarily a reversal in the broader trend.

Steem/Tether (STEEMUSDT) opened at $0.1322 at 12:00 ET − 1, reached a high of $0.1333, and closed at $0.1331 at 12:00 ET. The price action saw a low of $0.1313 during the session. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 2.05 million STEEM, with a notional turnover of $272,856 in USDT.

On the 15-minute chart, the price showed a consistent bearish bias after 9:30 PM ET, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming at the high of $0.1333. This pattern was followed by a long lower shadow, indicating rejection at key resistance. The candlestick pattern near $0.1321 also showed indecision in the form of a doji and a small bullish body, suggesting a potential short-term reversal, though it failed to sustain a meaningful rebound.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages (20 MA and 50 MA) were both above the price during the session, reinforcing a bearish bias. Price tested the 50 MA as a resistance level but failed to break through. MACD crossed below the signal line in the late hours of the session, confirming the bearish momentum, while RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) by the end of the day. This suggests that STEEMUSDT may be due for a short-term bounce, though this is not a signal of a reversal in the broader trend.

Bollinger Bands remained narrow for much of the day, indicating low volatility. The price remained below the middle band and within the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend is more probable than a reversal. Volume spiked during the sharp selloff in the late evening, confirming the bearish move and contrasting with the early morning rally, where volume was relatively low for a strong price rebound.

The price has found initial support around the 0.1315–0.1318 range, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent bullish swing. A break below this level would likely see STEEMUSDT test the 61.8% retracement near $0.1313. Looking ahead, a test of this support zone could offer an entry point for short-term contrarian traders, though the broader technical indicators remain bearish. Investors should remain cautious and watch for a definitive break above the 50 MA to signal any shift in sentiment.

The backtesting strategy involves identifying bearish engulfing patterns and oversold RSI conditions on the 15-minute chart. The strategy would enter short positions at the close of the bearish engulfing candle, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the pattern and a take-profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach leverages the observed price rejection at key resistance and momentum exhaustion as seen in the recent session. Given the low volatility, such a strategy would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum while managing risk through tight stops.