US Steel's Golden Opportunity: How Nippon's Bid Could Spark a Steel Renaissance Under Trump

The U.S. steel industry is at a crossroads. Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion bid to acquire U.S. Steel has become a geopolitical and economic lightning rod, with its fate hanging on a divided CFIUS panel and the pro-business pivot of the Trump administration. This is no ordinary merger—it’s a high-stakes gamble that could redefine national security policy, unlock undervalued shares, and position investors to profit from a steel renaissance. Let me break down why this is a now-or-never moment for aggressive investors.

The Catalyst: CFIUS’s Split and Trump’s Playbook

When former President Biden abruptly blocked the deal in January 2025, citing “national security risks,” it looked dead on arrival. But here’s the twist: Nippon Steel didn’t just walk away. Instead, they doubled down, proposing a $14 billion U.S. reinvestment plan—including a new steel mill—that’s designed to answer every CFIUS objection. The result? A de novo review ordered by Trump, who’s now demanding the panel “get it right” this time.

This is about more than steel. It’s about geopolitical realignment. The Biden team’s decision smacked of election-year protectionism, but Trump’s team sees this through a transactional lens: Japan is an ally, and $14 billion in new U.S. production is a win. With CFIUS now split—Defense wants tighter control, Commerce sees strategic value—the odds are tilting toward approval. And when the White House greenlights it, watch out.

The Mitigation Measures: A Playbook for National Security Compromises

Nippon’s revised terms are a masterclass in addressing CFIUS’s redlines:

1. Governance Overhaul: A U.S.-citizen majority board, three CFIUS-approved directors, and no foreign interference in trade decisions.
2. Job & Capacity Guarantees: No production cuts for ten years at key U.S. plants in PA, AL, TX, and IN.
3. The $14 Billion Gamble: A new steel mill and $1 billion pumped into aging facilities like Mon Valley Works—creating jobs and modernizing U.S. capacity.

These aren’t just “mitigations”—they’re economic lifelines for regions reliant on U.S. Steel. And with China’s steel dominance threatening global supply chains, Trump’s team sees this as a chance to “reindustrialize” under an ally’s watch.

USS has languished at $10-$15/share—50% below its 2023 highs. A deal approval could ignite a snap-back to $25+.

Why This Is a Now Trade

1. Timing is Everything: CFIUS’s May 21 deadline looms, and Trump’s 15-day decision window means a verdict by June 5. Investors who wait risk missing a pop when the deal clears.
2. Undervalued Assets: U.S. Steel’s $14.9 billion valuation is a steal—Nippon is buying a portfolio of prime U.S. mills at 50% of their replacement cost. The $14B reinvestment alone could boost earnings by 30%+ over five years.
3. Geopolitical Tailwinds: Trump’s “America First 2.0” agenda prioritizes foreign investment that creates jobs—this deal ticks every box.

The Risks? Yes, But the Reward Outweighs

• CFIUS Still Divided: Defense hawks could push for a block, but Commerce and the White House will likely override them.
• Labor Pushback: The United Steelworkers’ demands for job guarantees are already in the deal.
• Global Demand Volatility: Steel prices could dip, but Nippon’s scale gives it pricing power in a post-China trade world.

The Bottom Line: Buy USS Now—Before the Deal Goes Through

This is a classic Cramer play: act on the catalyst before the crowd. With shares at $12 and a $14.9B bid on the table, there’s 20%+ upside if the deal clears. Even a partial win—like conditional approval with the mill commitment—could send shares soaring.

Nippon’s shares are up 15% since the revised terms—proof the market sees this as a win-win.

Don’t let this slip away. The U.S. steel industry hasn’t seen this kind of reinvestment in decades. For aggressive investors, this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to bet on a strategic realignment—buy USS now, and hold on for the ride.

Action Plan: Allocate 5-10% of your portfolio to USS. If CFIUS approves by June 5, set a $20 target. If blocked? You’ll still own a turnaround story at bargain basement prices.

This isn’t just about steel—it’s about the future of American industry. And right now, the odds are stacked in your favor.