Steel Dynamics' Q4 2024: Navigating Contradictions in Sinton's Production and Profitability Expectations

Financial Performance and Operations:
- Steel Dynamics reported best-in-class financial metrics in 2024, with a record 12.7 million tons of steel shipments, cash from operations of $1.8 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion.
- The company noted safety improvements, with the lowest recordable injury and lost time rates in its history, and achieved its safest year ever.
- Growth was driven by a strong business model, performance-driven culture, and strategic investments in value-added steel products.

Aluminum Dynamics and New Projects:
- Aluminum Dynamics cast its first aluminum ingot in 2025, marking a significant milestone in its construction phase.
- The company expects full earnings benefit from its new value-added flat rolled steel coating lines in 2025, adding 1.1 million tons of higher margin products.
- These investments are part of Steel Dynamics' strategic growth plans to expand product diversification and enhance its earnings capability.

Challenges and Market Dynamics:
- Steel operations experienced a 5% decline in shipments in the fourth quarter due to lower pricing and seasonal factors.
- Flat rolled customer order entry was strong in 2025, but increased imports kept incremental buying at bay, impacting steel pricing.
- Despite challenges, the company anticipates increased demand and pricing support from public funding, manufacturing onshoring, and infrastructure spending.

Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation:
- Steel Dynamics repurchased $295 million of common stock in the fourth quarter, with a total of $1.2 billion for the year.
- The company maintains a strong capital foundation with $2.2 billion in liquidity and plans to continue active share repurchase and dividend programs.
- The focus remains on executing existing projects, with no imminent large-scale organic growth or M&A anticipated.