Starknet/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-12

Summary
• STRKUSDT fell 2.2% over 24 hours, trading in a descending channel from $0.1644 to $0.145.
• Volatility spiked during the drop, with price breaching key 15-minute Bollinger Bands.
• RSI oversold below 30 for several hours, indicating potential short-term bounce.

Starknet/Tether (STRKUSDT) opened at $0.163 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.145 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.1673 and a low of $0.1404. The total traded volume over the 24-hour window was approximately 183.4 million STRK, while the total turnover (notional value) was around $25.1 million, showing elevated liquidity despite the downward drift.

Structure & Formations

Price action on STRKUSDT displayed a clear bearish bias over the past 24 hours. A strong support level formed at $0.144–0.145 as price repeatedly tested this area. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $0.163–0.1621, signaling a shift in momentum. Later, a morning reversal pattern at $0.149–0.1516 hinted at short-term stabilization. A doji formed near $0.1516, suggesting indecision at the 24-hour high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remain in a bearish alignment, with price consistently below both. The daily chart shows the 50/100/200 SMA in a bearish convergence, with the 200-day SMA acting as a long-term floor at $0.136–0.138. The 100-day SMA is currently at ~$0.141, which may serve as the next support if the current trend continues.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has been bearish for most of the 24-hour period, with a negative divergence forming between the histogram and price as STRKUSDT declined. RSI has been in oversold territory for extended periods, particularly below 30 since 05:00 ET, hinting at a possible near-term rebound. However, RSI’s sluggish recovery suggests that the bearish trend is likely to continue unless strong buying pressure emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the initial drop from $0.1673 to $0.1516, causing the Bollinger Bands to expand. Price spent much of the night within the lower 1.5–2.0 standard deviations, especially from 00:00 to 04:30 ET. A minor contraction in the bands occurred around 05:30–07:00 ET, signaling potential for a short-term breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 03:00–05:00 ET window as STRKUSDT dropped sharply to $0.145, with the highest single 15-minute turnover at $0.145–0.146. Turnover remained elevated after the morning reversal, but notional value decreased in the afternoon, suggesting waning interest. Price and turnover moved in tandem during the early bearish phase but diverged slightly during the 07:00–09:00 ET rebound, hinting at potential distribution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels based on the 0.1644–0.1404 swing show the 38.2% retracement at $0.152 and the 61.8% at $0.146. Price briefly found support at the 61.8% level before continuing the decline. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 0.1618–0.1443 move is near $0.153, which could serve as a near-term resistance if the market rallies.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “RSI Oversold – 5-Day Hold” strategy, as evaluated from 2022–2025, highlights a key insight relevant to the current price behavior of STRKUSDT. RSI has spent multiple hours in oversold territory during this 24-hour window, aligning with the strategy's entry condition. While the strategy historically generated a 12.6% annualized return, its deep 51% maximum drawdown underscores the high volatility and risk associated with using RSI alone as a signal. The average gain of 1.3% per trade and significant drawdown suggest the need for additional filters—such as trend confirmation or stop-loss orders—to improve risk-adjusted returns. In the current context, this strategy might suggest a short-term holding after a bounce from the $0.145 support. However, without trend alignment or a clear breakout, the risk remains high.