Starbucks Stock Surges 9.66% In Four Days On Heavy Volume Breakout

Starbucks (SBUX) recently demonstrated strong bullish momentum, rising 4.33% in the most recent session to close at $95.39 – marking the fourth consecutive daily gain and a cumulative 9.66% advance over this period. This price action occurred on elevated volume of 14.8 million shares, suggesting conviction behind the move.
Candlestick Theory
The four-day rally formed consecutive bullish candles with higher highs and lows, culminating in a long white candle closing near the session high ($95.91). This pattern signals sustained buying pressure and clears the $92-93 resistance zone established in late May. Key support now rests at $89.50-$90.00, aligning with the June 9th low and the May 30th consolidation base. Resistance emerges at the psychological $100 level, which coincides with the early April price rejection near $103.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (near $89.00) crossed bullishly above the 200-day MA (approximately $85.50) in mid-May, confirming a long-term trend reversal. Current price trades well above all key MAs (50/100/200-day), indicating robust upside momentum. The 50-day MA now acts as dynamic support, having underpinned the June 5th pullback low of $86.86. The stacked order of MAs (price > 50-day > 100-day > 200-day) signals a fully developed uptrend.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) maintains a bullish crossover above its signal line since mid-May, with the histogram expanding – confirming accelerating upside momentum. Meanwhile, the KDJ oscillator shows the %K line (currently near 88) crossing above %D in overbought territory, reflecting strong near-term momentum. While this suggests overextended conditions, no bearish divergence is present as both indicators advance in sync with price.
Bollinger Bands
Price recently breached the upper Bollinger Band (20-day SMA ~$91.50 ±2σ), signaling an overextended move. This occurred alongside a volatility expansion from the May squeeze – where bands contracted to their narrowest width in three months. While a reversion toward the 20-day SMA is statistically probable, the decisive band breakout on high volume suggests trend continuation potential after consolidation.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 14.8 million shares traded on June 11 significantly exceeded the 30-day average volume (approximately 10 million), validating the breakout. Volume has expanded during each up day of the four-session rally, confirming buyer conviction. Notably, the May 12th surge (+6.69%) occurred on 17.2 million shares – the highest volume in three months – establishing $85 as major support. Volume patterns consistently reinforce bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (currently ~75) entered overbought territory (>70), suggesting near-term exhaustion risk. However, this signal lacks bearish divergence as RSI’s peak aligns with new price highs. Historically, Starbucks has sustained RSI >70 for multiple sessions during strong trends (e.g., April’s rally). While caution is warranted, the indicator alone doesn’t invalidate the bullish structure.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the March 10th high ($106.48) and April 30th low ($80.05), key Fibonacci levels emerge. The recent rally surpassed the 61.8% retracement ($95.20), turning this level into immediate support. The 78.6% level ($97.50) and the full 100% retracement ($106.48) represent the next resistance zones. The successful test of the 50% level ($93.26) as support on June 5th reinforces Fibonacci’s relevance.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
A notable confluence exists at $94.50-$95.50, where the current price aligns with both the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the upper Bollinger Band. This cluster strengthens resistance significance. All momentum indicators (MACD, KDJ, RSI) currently agree on bullish momentum without divergences. The sole caution arises from Bollinger Band expansion and RSI overbought readings, though these lack confirmation from volume or candlestick reversal patterns. The technical structure suggests pullbacks to $93.50 (Fibonacci 50% + 20-day SMA) or $90.00 (50-day MA + swing low) present high-probability buying opportunities.