Starbucks Jumps 3.05% As Technicals Signal Potential Breakout Above $90 Resistance

Starbucks (SBUX) gained 3.05% in the most recent session, closing at $89.64 with notable strength as it approached the daily high of $89.89. This upward momentum provides context for the following technical assessment of SBUX's price behavior over the past year.
Candlestick Theory
The June 6 bullish candle closed near its peak after testing support near $88.24, reinforcing the $88–$89 zone as immediate support. This follows a bullish engulfing pattern formed between June 5 (bearish candle) and June 6, signaling short-term reversal potential. Resistance is evident at $90–$91, where multiple prior rallies stalled between February and May. The March peak at $117.46 and January low at $72.73 establish major boundaries, with recent consolidation compressing within these levels.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (MA) at ~$87 currently supports the price, while the 100-day MA at ~$91 and 200-day MA at ~$93 converge as overhead resistance. SBUX trades above its short-term 50-day MA but below longer-term averages, indicating intermediate consolidation within a broader downtrend from the Q1 peak. A sustained break above the 100/200-day MA cluster would signal trend reversal potential.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover emerging below the zero line, hinting at nascent upward momentum though still in negative territory. The KDJ oscillator exited oversold conditions (K=20, D=25) on June 5 and now approaches neutral (K=45, D=35). While both indicators align in suggesting reduced bearish pressure, neither confirms a robust bullish phase yet. Volume during the June 6 rally slightly lagged prior up days, warranting caution.
Bollinger Bands
Bands contracted sharply in May–June, reflecting the lowest volatility in six months. Price rebounded from the lower band near $86 on June 4–5 and now tests the midline (~$88.50). Band narrowing often precedes directional breakouts; a close above the midline could trigger momentum toward the $91 upper band.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains lack volume confirmation, with turnover on June 6 (~8.77M shares) below the May 29–30 sell-off volume (~10.3M–12.3M). This divergence suggests skepticism toward recovery sustainability. The February–April decline featured distribution patterns (high volume on down days), while May consolidation saw balanced participation. Stronger volume is needed to validate any breakout above $90.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI (14-period) exited oversold territory (recent low: 35) and now reads 52, reflecting neutral momentum. While the RSI avoids warning signals, its mid-range position offers limited directional bias. Weekly RSI (47) aligns, showing no overbought/oversold extremes but confirming the absence of trending momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the March 2025 high ($117.46) and June 2025 low ($86.02) shows the current price near the 38.2% retracement ($88.50), which has served as support. The 50% retracement at $91.75 and 61.8% at $95.02 pose the next resistance thresholds. These align closely with the 100/200-day MAs, creating a significant confluence barrier in the $91–$92 area.
Confluence and Divergence Assessment
Confluence appears at $88 support (candlesticks, Fibonacci) and $91–$92 resistance (MAs, Fibonacci, prior price action). Bullish alignment between MACD, KDJ, and the Bollinger Band rebound strengthens the case for near-term upside, but volume divergence and RSI neutrality inject caution. A confirmed break above $92 with volume expansion could signal trend reversal, while failure at $88 may resume the downtrend. Probabilistically, consolidation appears favored absent decisive volume confirmation.