Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Surge 81% to $200,000 by Year-End

Standard Chartered, a prominent global financial institution, has made a bold prediction regarding the future of Bitcoin. The bank's analysts have forecasted that Bitcoin could surge to an unprecedented $200,000 by the end of this year. This prediction is based on several bullish catalysts that are expected to drive the cryptocurrency's value significantly higher in the second half of 2025.

One of the key factors contributing to this optimistic outlook is the anticipated strong demand from Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and corporate buyers. According to Standard Chartered, the Bitcoin halving cycle, which typically reduces the supply of new Bitcoins entering the market, is unlikely to negatively impact the price. Instead, the reduced supply coupled with increasing demand from institutional investors is expected to create a favorable environment for price appreciation.

The bank's analysts also highlight the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class by major financial institutions and corporations. This shift in perception is expected to attract more investors, further driving up the demand for Bitcoin. Additionally, the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by retail investors and the general public is seen as a positive indicator for its long-term growth.

Standard Chartered's forecast of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end is a significant increase from its current price levels. This prediction underscores the bank's confidence in the cryptocurrency's potential to outperform traditional asset classes. However, it is important to note that this forecast is based on analysts' predictions and should be considered with caution, as the cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility and unpredictability.

Historically, Bitcoin has slumped months after the halving, a quadrennial event that slows the growth rate in top crypto’s supply. This time, growing ETF inflows and increased corporate treasury buying are expected to kill that pattern, according to Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered. Kendrick told clients in a report that the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle “is dead.” While the two previous halving cycles in 2016 and 2020 resulted in Bitcoin prices sinking in roughly 18 months after the halving, the impact of the latest Bitcoin halving in April 2024 will likely be different. Although he believes the maiden crypto will likely defy historical post-halving patterns, he warned it won’t all be smooth sailing.

“We think prices could be choppy in late Q3 and early Q4 amid concerns about this pattern being repeated,” Kendrick said. “However, we expect prices to resume their uptrend, supported by continued strong ETF and Bitcoin treasury buying.” The analyst ultimately expects Bitcoin to reach $135,000 by September 30, and doubled down on his $200,000 target for December 31.

Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and treasury buyers snapped up a total of 245,000 BTC during the second quarter. Kendrick forecasts that figure will be surpassed in the coming months as allocations continue and an increasing list of public companies emulate Strategy’s BTC acquisition playbook. The banker observed that both the BTC treasury company demand and spot ETFs were missing in all the prior halving cycles. As such, he believes Bitcoin is on course to set a record above its previous record high of $111,814, set on May 22. “Bitcoin to print new all-time highs in H2,” Kendrick stated.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy popularized the Bitcoin treasury strategy, pivoting from its software development focus in late 2020. The Nasdaq-listed firm, which has been buying BTC almost every week over the last year, now owns 597,325 Bitcoin worth around $65 billion based on current market prices. Kendrick also cited macro tailwinds, including a possible early announcement by President Donald Trump naming a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the passage of the landmark GENIUS stablecoin legislation, as other catalysts that could fuel further upside for Bitcoin.