Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $200,000 by 2025 Driven by Institutional Adoption and ETF Inflows

Standard Chartered Bank has issued a bullish forecast for Bitcoin, predicting that the leading cryptocurrency could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. This projection, shared by the bank's crypto research head Geoff Kendrick, is attributed to accelerating institutional adoption and massive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. The forecast is based on quantifiable shifts in market dynamics, capital allocation, and post-halving cycles, rather than mere speculative hype.

Institutional treasuries across the globe are increasingly pivoting toward Bitcoin. Kendrick highlights MicroStrategy’s reserves strategy, the use of excess energy in mining projects, and Scandinavian investment houses rebalancing reserves with digital assets as key indicators of this trend. The result is a shrinking pool of available Bitcoin supply on exchanges, which puts upward pressure on prices. Even a minor allocation from tech giants’ cash reserves could create a significant price shock, according to Standard Chartered. With demand rising and liquid supply diminishing, the market setup is leaning toward scarcity-driven appreciation.

Since the launch of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, institutional capital has poured in. Retirement funds and large asset managers, attracted to Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted potential and inflation-resistant qualities, have viewed ETFs as the safest on-ramp. These inflows have accelerated the post-halving rally, with this cycle seeing compressed cooling phases thanks to sustained ETF demand. Unlike previous halving cycles, which were followed by long consolidation periods—often up to 18 months—this cycle has seen a more rapid recovery.

Standard Chartered’s long-term outlook for Bitcoin is even more ambitious, with a potential $500,000 valuation by 2028. This forecast is built on the “digital gold” thesis—that Bitcoin will eventually rival gold in market capitalization. As global investors and even central banks look to diversify portfolios, Bitcoin is being positioned as a credible store of value. Kendrick argues that this is not just a crypto narrative but a macroeconomic reality unfolding in slow motion. Spot ETFs are playing a pivotal role, breaking down barriers for traditional investors and enhancing Bitcoin’s accessibility.

Standard Chartered’s forecasts represent more than just headline-grabbing figures. They encapsulate a broader financial shift driven by institutional validation, constrained supply, and the maturing ETF ecosystem. If these predictions hold true, the final months of 2025 may mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s transition from digital curiosity to mainstream monetary asset. The bank's head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, has been a consistent advocate for Bitcoin's long-term potential, arguing that the dynamics driving the cryptocurrency have fundamentally changed. Kendrick notes that Bitcoin has moved beyond its historical halving cycle patterns, which typically saw price booms followed by corrections within an 18-month window. The latest halving in April 2024 is expected to differ due to the emergence of stronger demand drivers, such as ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying. According to Kendrick, these factors will support a continued uptrend in Bitcoin's price, with ETF and corporate treasury flows accounting for approximately 245,000 BTC in the second quarter of 2025 alone. This level is projected to be exceeded in both the third and fourth quarters, further bolstering the price. Standard Chartered's forecast for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 would mark a near-doubling from current levels. As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $107,500. Despite recent negative ETF flows in the United States, Kendrick's outlook suggests that large-scale institutional allocation to Bitcoin remains a secular trend. This growing interest from corporate treasuries could alter how firms manage their balance sheet assets, potentially favoring digital assets over traditional stores of value. The bank's bullish outlook extends beyond 2025, with a long-term call for Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2028. This forecast is premised on sustained institutional interest and broader macroeconomic conditions that could favor digital assets. As Bitcoin continues to gain traction among institutional investors, its price trajectory is expected to be supported by deepening adoption and structural changes in the market.