Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $135,000 by 2025 Driven by Institutional Demand

Standard Chartered has projected that Bitcoin's price may experience a significant rise post-2025 halving, driven by strong demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries. The bank's analysis suggests a shift in market dynamics, where institutional demand is decoupling Bitcoin's price trajectory from historical post-halving declines.

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, notes that Bitcoin's price behavior is no longer solely dictated by the halving cycle. The influx of institutional capital through ETFs and corporate treasury acquisitions is providing sustained upward momentum, reducing the vulnerability to cyclical downturns observed in previous halving periods. This shift indicates the maturation of the crypto market, with strategic, long-term institutional investments supplementing traditional retail-driven cycles.

The report highlights that ETFs and corporate treasuries are critical factors reshaping Bitcoin's price trajectory. These institutional actors bring substantial and consistent demand, enhancing liquidity and market stability. ETFs offer regulated, accessible exposure to Bitcoin, while corporations allocating Bitcoin to their treasuries signal confidence in the asset’s long-term value, further bolstering demand.

Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin reaching $135,000 by Q3 2025 and potentially surpassing $200,000 by year-end, reflecting robust institutional backing. This outlook is supported by data showing sustained ETF inflows and growing corporate adoption, which collectively create a formidable support base for Bitcoin’s price.

Beyond the immediate post-halving period, Standard Chartered maintains a bullish long-term perspective. The bank projects Bitcoin could achieve a valuation of $500,000 per coin by 2028, driven by continued institutional adoption and evolving market infrastructure. This projection aligns with broader trends of increasing regulatory clarity, enhanced custody solutions, and expanding use cases for Bitcoin as a store of value and hedge against inflation.

While acknowledging potential short-term volatility, particularly in late 2025 due to historical correction patterns, the report underscores that the fundamental drivers of demand have shifted. This evolution suggests that Bitcoin’s price cycles may become less pronounced but more sustainable, supported by solid institutional frameworks rather than speculative momentum alone.

For investors, Standard Chartered’s analysis signals a critical inflection point in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. The diminishing influence of the halving cycle as a sole price determinant necessitates a broader evaluation of institutional trends and macroeconomic factors. Investors are encouraged to monitor ETF inflows, corporate treasury activities, and regulatory developments as key indicators of Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

Moreover, the report advises caution regarding potential price choppiness in the latter half of 2025, reflecting residual uncertainty from previous halving cycles. This suggests that while the overall trend is bullish, tactical positioning and risk management remain essential for market participants.

Standard Chartered’s forward-looking analysis redefines the Bitcoin halving narrative by emphasizing the transformative impact of institutional demand. The traditional post-halving price decline appears increasingly obsolete in the face of strong ETF and corporate buying, positioning Bitcoin for significant growth through 2025 and beyond. Investors should consider this evolving landscape carefully, recognizing that Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class is reshaping its price dynamics and long-term potential.