Standard Chartered Predicts 84% Bitcoin Surge to $200,000 by Year-End

Standard Chartered Bank has reaffirmed its year-end price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin, as stated in its latest H2 2025 Outlook report. This target represents a significant increase from the current price of $107,800 as of July 3rd. The bank's Director of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, highlighted three key drivers that are expected to propel Bitcoin to its strongest ever USD-priced surge in the second half of 2025.

According to Kendrick, the first driver is the influx of spot ETFs, which are attracting substantial institutional investment. The second driver is the growing demand from corporate treasuries, which are increasingly allocating a portion of their reserves to Bitcoin. The third driver is the favorable regulatory environment, which is becoming more conducive to the adoption and use of cryptocurrencies.

Kendrick noted that while MicroStrategy's recent pace of Bitcoin accumulation has slowed, other institutions are stepping in to fill the demand gap. He expects that overall Bitcoin purchases by corporate treasuries in the third quarter will surpass those of the second quarter, leading to sustained inflows. This institutional demand is seen as a key differentiator from past Bitcoin cycles, which were primarily driven by supply tightening logic following halving events.

Historical data shows that Bitcoin peaked and retraced after 526 days and 547 days following the previous halvings. However, Kendrick pointed out that new capital channels such as ETFs and corporate treasuries, which did not exist in prior cycles, have broken this pattern. He expects that the selling pressure from long-term holders will be weaker than in previous cycles, and continuous inflows will be sufficient to absorb any profit-taking.

Kendrick also emphasized the importance of the 10-year Treasury yield spread indicator. Since early 2024, the Bitcoin price trend has been highly synchronized with this indicator, and Standard Chartered expects the yield spread to continue rising. This synchronization suggests that macroeconomic factors are playing a significant role in Bitcoin's price movements, further supporting the bank's bullish thesis.