Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin 2026 Forecast to $100K, Sees Near-Term Slide to $50K

Standard Chartered has cut its 2026 Bitcoin price forecast to $100,000 from a prior target of $150,000, citing deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. The bank warned that prices could fall to $50,000 before stabilizing according to its forecast.

The revised forecast is based on a weaker macroeconomic backdrop and ETF outflows, which have led to declining asset inflows and increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin ETF holdings have dropped 41% from their 2025 peaks, indicating a shift in investor sentiment.

Ethereum is also expected to face similar short-term challenges. The bank forecasts Ethereum will drop to $1,400 before stabilizing and reaching $4,000 by the end of 2026 according to its analysis. Despite the near-term bearish outlook, Standard Chartered maintains a long-term bullish view for both assets, with Bitcoin expected to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026 as projected.

Why Did This Happen?

Standard Chartered's revised forecasts reflect deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. The bank attributes the downward price pressure to broader economic trends, which have reduced investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market.

The decline in Bitcoin ETF holdings and the broader market volatility have also played a role in the revised forecasts. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $410.4 million in outflows, extending weekly losses to $375.1 million. These outflows are seen as a reflection of shifting investor sentiment and reduced demand for crypto assets.

The bank also noted that Bitcoin's price could stabilize if it holds above the 200-week moving average near $58,000 according to its warning. A sustained break below this level could lead to a deeper pullback, adding to the near-term bearish scenario.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin's ability to break the $66,464 resistance level. The cryptocurrency's performance is being influenced by weak global risk sentiment and broader financial trends, including falling Wall Street tech stocks.

Institutional and corporate demand remains a key factor in short-term stabilization. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $145 million inflow on Monday, showing mild signs of recovery. Corporate demand, particularly from companies like Strategy (MSTR), continues to show aggressive accumulation despite ongoing market weakness.

On-chain data suggests easing sell pressure and tentative buyer engagement. Momentum has improved from deeply oversold levels, with the RSI rebounding toward its lower statistical band. However, spot volumes remain reactive rather than constructive, indicating that the market is still adjusting to the latest repricing.

The bank also raised concerns about further price declines in the coming months but maintains its end-2030 forecasts for BTC, ETH, and Solana according to its analysis. This long-term optimism contrasts with the immediate bearish outlook, highlighting the market's complex dynamics and the role of macroeconomic factors.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin has seen a significant decline, with the price dropping to around $66,464 and extending its fourth weekly decline. The cryptocurrency market has shed nearly $2 trillion in value, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment.

The broader market environment is also affected by strong U.S. jobs data, which has reduced expectations for near-term interest-rate cuts. Market watchers are closely monitoring Bitcoin's ability to break key resistance levels and avoid further declines. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and regulatory developments are also expected to influence the next market moves.

Ethereum and Solana are also in corrective moves, with Ethereum trading below key resistance levels and Solana in a clear downtrend according to market data. Ethereum's fundamentals remain stable with active developers and users, while Solana struggles to stabilize as observed.

The market is also showing signs of capital rotation toward early-stage blockchain projects according to analysis. Initiatives like Pepeto, which have raised over $7 million in their presale phase, are gaining attention as investors seek alternatives to more volatile large-cap cryptocurrencies.