StakeStone/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined from 0.1772 to 0.1683 amid broad distribution and bearish divergence.
• RSI and MACD signals suggested weakening bullish momentum and potential overbought exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, with price hovering near the lower band.
• A key support level appears at ~0.1680–0.1685, with potential for a rebound.
• High turnover during late ET hours suggests significant participation and potential trend shift.

StakeStone/Tether (STOUSDT) opened at 0.1748 at 12:00 ET − 1 and closed at 0.1704 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-02, with a high of 0.1772 and low of 0.1666. Total volume for the 24-hour window was ~3.36 million contracts, and total turnover was approximately $565,000.

Structure & Formations

The price action on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish breakdown from a key resistance near 0.1760 to a new support zone between 0.1680 and 0.1685. A long lower shadow and bearish engulfing pattern were observed around the 0.1700 level, signaling a potential shift in sentiment. Key support levels appear at 0.1680, 0.1675, and 0.1670, while resistance is likely at 0.1705 and 0.1715. The formation of a falling wedge in the latter half of the session suggests a possible continuation of the downward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned below the price. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, forming a death cross, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, with the 200SMA acting as a strong bearish reference near 0.1730. This alignment of averages points to a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and continued to diverge from price action in the latter half of the session, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. RSI dropped from above 60 to below 40, entering oversold territory, with a potential rebound expected from the 40 level. While RSI shows oversold conditions, a sustained rebound will need confirmation from both volume and price action to avoid a false recovery.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded throughout the session, with Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range of 0.0003 to over 0.0008. Price action spent the majority of the session near the lower band, indicating a distribution pattern and weak bullish participation. A bounce from the lower band could target the 0.1700–0.1705 level, with a break above that level signaling a short-term recovery.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was elevated during the late ET session and early morning hours, with a significant spike occurring between 07:45 ET and 08:00 ET when the price dropped from 0.1709 to 0.1685. This period accounted for 889,866.9 contracts and was associated with a large turnover of ~$151,000. A divergence between price and volume was observed after 10:00 ET, as the price continued lower while volume waned, suggesting a potential exhaustion of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 0.1772–0.1666 swing, key levels to watch are the 61.8% (0.1715) and the 50% (0.1719) levels. A break above 0.1715 could trigger a short-term rebound toward 0.1725–0.1730. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader swing from 0.1772 to 0.1685 resides near 0.1715–0.1720, aligning with potential short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the bearish potential identified in the current setup, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry on a break below the 0.1685 level, with a stop above the 0.1700 level and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.1715. Given the recent volume and price behavior, a fixed holding period of 5 trading days or a 3% stop-loss could be appropriate. This approach aligns with the MACD divergence and RSI oversold conditions, offering a structured method to assess the strength of the bearish momentum.