Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) Market Overview – October 29, 2025

• STXUSDT opened at $0.4562 and closed at $0.4371, with a 24-hour range of $0.4592 to $0.4349.
• Price experienced a sharp bearish reversal after 19:30 ET, dropping below $0.45, signaling strong downside momentum.
• Volume spiked over 100,000 contracts in the early hours of October 29, coinciding with the key breakdown.
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish momentum, with RSI falling into oversold territory by 03:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded as price moved outside the 20-period Bollinger Band, with a 5.3% move into the lower band.

Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) opened at $0.4562 on October 28 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.4371 on October 29 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $0.4592 and a low of $0.4349. The pair traded a total volume of 3.3 million contracts, with $1.46 million in notional turnover over the 24-hour window. A sharp bearish reversal occurred after 19:30 ET, as price broke below $0.45 and failed to recover, indicating a potential shift in sentiment.

Structure and formations show that price found initial support at $0.4472, then broke it decisively after 21:15 ET, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. This move was followed by a strong rejection at $0.442, with multiple rejection candles. The 20-period EMA (on 15-minute chart) crossed below the 50-period EMA, forming a death cross, while the 50-period daily EMA crossed above the 100-period EMA, suggesting mixed signals on different timeframes. Notably, the 200-period daily EMA remains above current price, indicating potential long-term bearish bias.

Momentum indicators confirm bearish pressure. The RSI dropped below 30 at 03:00 ET and lingered in oversold territory, signaling exhaustion on the short side. The MACD histogram remained negative throughout the session, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line to confirm the bearish trend. Bollinger Band width expanded significantly after the breakdown below $0.45, with price settling at the lower band by 01:00 ET. This indicates elevated volatility and potential for further downside. Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute swing from $0.4592 to $0.4349 show 61.8% at $0.4430, which was rejected twice, suggesting it may hold as short-term support.

Fibonacci retracements also apply to the daily chart, where the 61.8% level of the recent upswing sits near $0.442–0.443. This area has already seen rejection, reinforcing its potential as a near-term floor. Volume spiked sharply from 21:30 ET onward, especially as price moved below $0.45, with over 100,000 contracts traded in individual 15-minute intervals. The volume and price action appear to confirm the bearish break, as there was no significant buying interest to push price back above the key levels. Turnover spiked in tandem with volume, with a notable divergence appearing in the late hours of October 29 as price continued lower despite the reduced volume, suggesting exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

A bearish backtest based on the Bearish Engulfing pattern, using 15-minute candlestick data, could be valuable for short-term traders looking to capitalize on sharp reversals in STXUSDT. While the automated scan failed to detect such patterns due to a data retrieval error, manual identification of key engulfing patterns—such as the one observed around 21:15 ET on October 29—can be used to develop a viable strategy. This strategy would involve identifying a bullish-to-bearish engulfing pattern following a short-term uptrend, with entry on the close of the bearish candle, a stop above the high of the pattern, and a target at the 1:1 risk-reward level. Given the current bearish momentum and confirmation from volume and indicators, a short-term backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-29 could reveal the profitability of this approach on STXUSDT.