Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-11-03

• STXUSDT declined sharply overnight, with price falling from $0.426 to $0.375 within 15 hours
• Volatility spiked after 15:00 ET with a 10% drawdown from the high of $0.426
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum as the price broke below key support levels
• Daily volume increased 5–10x from 15:00 ET onward, confirming the downtrend
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 24-hour high, indicating potential further downside

Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) opened at $0.4174 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.4262 by 2025-11-03 at 00:00 ET before plunging to a low of $0.3608 at 15:45 ET. The pair closed at $0.3786 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. Over the past 24 hours, the total trading volume was 11,314,981.1 units of STX, while notional turnover reached $3,253,200. The sharp decline from the 00:00 ET high to the 15:45 ET low suggests a strong bearish sentiment in the market.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish breakdown below key support levels. The price initially tested resistance around $0.420–0.425 multiple times before forming a large bearish engulfing pattern at the top of the move. This pattern, formed at $0.426–0.420, confirmed a reversal from a bullish to a bearish bias. Following this, the price fell below the 0.417–0.415 support zone and then broke through the 0.400 psychological level. A large bearish candle at 15:45 ET (0.3916 → 0.3608) was a clear continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a steep downward trend, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The price remains well below both, with no immediate signs of a reversal. Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, indicating heightened volatility. The price is currently at the lower band of the bands, suggesting it may test support at 0.35–0.36 before finding a floor.

MACD and RSI

The MACD line has turned negative and remains below the signal line, with a strong bearish divergence. This suggests further downside could be in store. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory at the 15:45 ET time frame, reaching as low as 22. While this may suggest a potential bounce, the overall bearish structure and volume suggest a continuation of the decline is more likely. A short-term rebound could occur, but only on a retest of the $0.38–0.39 level with confirmation of a bullish reversal.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically starting at 15:00 ET with the large bearish candle at 15:45 ET registering the highest 15-minute volume of the day at 1,131,498.1 STX. Notional turnover also surged during this time, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, volume has since declined slightly, indicating a potential exhaustion of selling pressure. Traders may look for confirmation of a rebound with a significant increase in buying volume at key support levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 24-hour move from $0.426 to $0.3608, the 61.8% level is currently at $0.385, while the 38.2% level is at $0.396. The price appears to have rejected the 0.385 level and is now consolidating around the 0.37–0.38 area. A close above 0.385 with confirmation could trigger a test of the 0.396 level and beyond, but this would require a shift in sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bearish engulfing pattern at the peak of the move (0.426–0.420) aligns with the "Dark Cloud Cover" strategy described. A backtest of this pattern could be conducted using the STXUSDT pair across multiple timeframes, evaluating its efficacy in predicting further downside. By analyzing historical performance over the next 1–10 days post-signal, we could assess how often this formation leads to continued bearish momentum. Given the strong volume confirmation and divergence in momentum indicators, STXUSDT may be a suitable candidate for such a backtest to validate the reliability of the pattern in this market.