Stacks/Tether Market Overview: A 24-Hour Technical Breakdown

• Price fell from 0.634 to 0.612 over 24 hours amid bearish momentum.
• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting possible short-term rebound.
• Volume spiked during early sell-offs but waned as price declined.
• Bollinger Bands tightened in the final hours, indicating possible breakout.
• Fibonacci levels suggest key support at 0.610 and resistance at 0.633.

The Stacks/Tether (STXUSDT) pair opened at 0.620 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.634 before falling to a low of 0.610. By the close at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04, price settled at 0.612. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 5,294,147.8, and notional turnover (amount × price) amounted to $3,287,990.1.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish bias with multiple large bearish bodies and a key bearish engulfing pattern at 0.634 (17:00 ET). A doji formed near 0.613 around 01:00 ET, signaling indecision at the lower end of recent price action. Key resistance levels are visible at 0.627, 0.631, and 0.634, while support is evident at 0.613, 0.610, and 0.606.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed downward during the 17:00–18:00 ET window, confirming the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 100DMA are converging from above the 200DMA, indicating a potential shift in long-term sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the early afternoon, confirming a bearish momentum shift. RSI reached 28 by 06:00 ET, nearing oversold territory, which may trigger short-term buying interest. However, divergence between RSI and price remains weak, suggesting momentum is not yet fully reversed.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early hours before contracting significantly in the final six hours, with price tightening near the middle band. This pattern may precede a breakout or a continuation of the downward trend, depending on the next key candle.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:15–19:30 ET window, coinciding with the 0.627–0.610 decline. However, turnover decreased as price approached 0.612, suggesting reduced conviction in the move. A divergence between volume and price in the final candle suggests traders are becoming cautious.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.634–0.610 swing, the 61.8% level at 0.620 and 38.2% at 0.623 are critical for a potential bounce. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the recent 0.700–0.550 move indicate key support at 0.594 and resistance at 0.648.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be built around the convergence of RSI and Bollinger Bands contractions. Entering long near an oversold RSI level (28–30) when the price is near the lower Bollinger Band may offer a high-probability trade. Stop-loss could be placed below the next Fibonacci level (0.610), with a target at the 38.2% level (0.623). If this strategy is applied across multiple cycles, it could filter out noise and improve risk-adjusted returns.